The prices of assets reflect a floating mood on Wednesday, with Bitcoin Recovering $ 112,000 and European actions increasing at the opening, while analysts have minimized fears of stagflation and recession triggered by horrible American job data.
On Tuesday, the American work statistics office published a shocking update: the economy probably added 911,000 jobs less than what was initially reported in the 12 months until March 2025.
Think about it this way: for more than a year, Bulls in the equity market and cryptography have taken risks, confident that a healthy labor market would maintain the economy despite sticky inflation. This confidence was shaken Tuesday and BTC quickly increased from $ 113,000 to $ 110,800.
Some market players have considered the review of BLS as proof of an imminent recession. However, Michael Englund, principal director and chief economist at Action Economics, said the data revealed the economic cycle or the state of the economy very little.
“These revisions tell us more about the secular trajectory for the size of the American labor rather than where we are in the economic cycle, so this has not really increased our perceived risk of recession, even if he tells us that the growth of trends for monthly payroll is now probably a two-digit gain, measured by thousands 150,000 to 200,000 gains observed in the majority of the current expansion” England in an email in Coindesk.
He explained that the strong growth of the American active population after the population, which exceeded the expectations of economists, was largely driven by a net annual migration of around a million people. Now it has moved to a clear migration, estimated between one and two million.
“This transition to a trajectory of lower secular growth for the active population implies a slower growth of civil employment, measured by domestic surveys and non -agricultural wages of establishment surveys in the future,” said Englund.
The financial markets seem to share this point of view, because European actions have opened above today, the BTC is back greater than $ 112,000. Altcoins as ether (Eth)Xrp and Dogine have erased an important potion from the fall on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Solana’s soil (GROUND) Leaps at $ 222, the highest since February 1. The S&P 500 term contracts exchanged 0.3% more, European actions with the opening gains.
Stagflation fears are exaggerated
BLS revisions and imminent American CPI data, which should show sticky inflation at around 3% (well above the 2% lens of the Fed)have restored fears of stagflation, a situation characterized by strong persistent inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant economic growth. Stagflation is widely considered as the worst result for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
However, the fears that the economy is heading towards the Stagflation seems exaggerated, according to Marc Chandler, director and chief masterpiece of the market at Bannockburn Global Forex, which noted that American GDP is still taking place above “the estimate of the trend” of the federal reserve or a non-inflationary rate.
“I think that stagflation is always exaggerated. The Atlanta Fed Tracker always has the GDP above the estimate of the Fed trend, its non-inflationary rhythm.
Yes, inflation is a little raised, and it is likely that it is more with the impression of the CPI of August Thursday. However, Fed officials, such as Waller and Bowman, want to browse the rates related to prices, “said Chandler in Coindesk.
“It seems clear to me that the Fed will resume its softening lesson next week,” he added.
Merchants crashed in a chance of 91% of Fed reduction rates of 25 basic points at 4% on September 17, according to the CME Fedwatch tool. Some investment banks and traders anticipate a lower rate of 50 basins.
Concentrate on us cpi
These flexibility expectations could further strengthen if the American producer price index on Wednesday (PPI) And the consumer price index on Thursday (ICC) Unexpectedly report disinflation, which would help risks assets to stay in the short term.
That said, increased expectations could open the way for disappointment.
“I think that this week’s CPI impression will give us more context … If the market expects the points of 50 SBPS to be cut, but FOMC on September 17 will only deliver 25 SBPS … We are going to make a sale,” said Greg Magadini, Director of Amberdata derivatives, Coindesk.
