It is an environment at risk, with actions carrying higher major cryptocurrencies, but the gauge for fear of Wall Street, the VIX, arouses nerves.
Monday, Wall Street’s reference index, the S&P 500, set a record for the fourth consecutive negotiation day, reaching 6,519 points. The Nasdaq index, heavy with technology, also reached life peaks, and the Dow Jones exchanged near the peak recorded on Thursday.
The shares increased, without taking into account the leased September manufacturing survey, as bond yields fell in anticipation of a Fed rate drop of 25 base points on Wednesday. According to the term contracts on Fed Funds, traders expect rates to fall to 3% compared to the current 4.25% in the next 12 months.
However, Bitcoin Lack of direction Claire because it was negotiated between $ 114,000 and $ 117,000, forming an undecided Doji candle. During the editorial staff, he changed hands at $ 115,860, pursuing a dull trading model below record summits of more than $ 124,000 with a safe blow in August.
The action of the Dour prices is probably due to the fact that long -term holders continue to make profits and counter the increased pressure of FNB entries.
Other major tokens such as ether (Eth)Xrp And dogecoin have also lost momentum upwards.
Ethereum’s Etherum token is withdrawn from $ 4,800 to $ 4,500 in three days, having put heights over $ 5,000 last month. The weakness is perplexed, like ether, popularly known as the Bond Internet because of its mechanism of efficiency of intention, becomes an attractive investment with the imminent reductions of the rates of the Fed.
The XRP focused on payments fell at $ 3.00, marking a low follow -up of the bullish escape of the confirmed triangle confirmed last week. Meanwhile, Dogecoin, the main jet of meme by market value, fell strongly to 26.7 cents of 30.7 cents in the midst of the sales reports of whales.
Analysts said that a drop in rate of 25 bassis could resume the highest slow in BTC. Meanwhile, a surprise movement of 50 bps could see stocks, crypto and gold go berserk.
Keep an eye on the VIX and BTC Vol indices
The increase in Monday in American shares was characterized by an increase in the VIX index, which represents the implicit or expected volatility of options in the S&P 500 in the next 30 days.
The VIX increased by more than 6% to 15.68 points. Although it still oscillates largely in the hollows of several months, Tuesday points attracts attention for two reasons: first, historically, the two have evolved in opposite directions, as evidenced by the correlation of almost -90 over a period of 90 days.
Second, a break in negative correlation often precedes corrections, as indicated by the intelligence platform of the market focused on the Menthor Q on X.
“SPX has increased with the VIX today. This often points to the upward positioning, traders striking calls or coverage of the disadvantages [with puts]Leaving vulnerable markets, “said Menthor Q.
The VIX is influenced by the request for options, and the rise of Tuesday in the index could have been led by traders in search of Put S&P 500 or protection against the decline.
Perhaps market players anticipate a correction following the drop in the decrease in the Fed of 25 basins expected on Wednesday.
BTC implicit volatility increases
The implicit Volmex bitcoin volatility index, which represents the turbulence of prices expected over 30 days, also increased by 3% on Monday, now its positive correlation with Vix.
Note that the Historical positive correlation of the BTC with the implicit volatility indices overthrown negative since the ETF Spot was posted in January of last year since the electoral victory of President Trump in November of last year.
