Banking giant Jpmorgan dit Bitcoin could climb to around $ 165,000 on a basis adjusted in volatility compared to gold, stressing what the bank considers as a significant increase if the so-called “discharge trade” continues to gain momentum.
Wall Street lender models suggest that Bitcoin should increase by around 40% compared to current levels to correspond to the scale of private gold holders once the risk is taken into account.
The largest cryptocurrency in the world was negotiating about $ 119,000 at the time of publication.
The discharge trade involves buying assets such as gold or bitcoin to cover yourself against the devaluation of fiduciary currencies.
The projection of the bank intervenes while retail investors have accelerated their adoption of the degradation trade, flowing both the funds negotiated in Bitcoin and in exchange for gold during the last quarter.
Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou have noted that flows in these products have increased since the end of 2024, a trend that took care before the American presidential election.
Analysts have developed trade in response to long -term inflation problems, the government’s deficits ball, questions about the independence of the federal reserve, confidence in fiduciary currencies in certain emerging markets and a broader decision to diversify far from the US dollar.
The cumulative flows in the FNB Bitcoin and Gold have increased sharply, said JPMorgan, retail buyers leading a large part of the activity. The Bitcoin Fund negotiated in exchange (ETF) initially exceeded gold earlier in the year, especially after the “Liberation Day”, but the entries of FNB Gold has been catching up since August, reducing the gap.
Institutional investors also participated, according to JPMorgan, although mainly via Bitcoin and Gold Futures from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) rather than ETF. The proxy of the bank based on open interest shows that institutions have been net buyers since 2024, but their momentum has recently taken the request for detail.
The sharp increase in gold prices during the last month also strengthened the relative attraction of Bitcoin, because the Bitcoin / Gold volatility ratio derived below 2.0. This change highlights the opinion of the bank according to which Bitcoin remains undervalued compared to gold, with its current price at around $ 50,000 below where the JPMorgan model suggests that it should be.
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