The long-awaited ALT season, a phase of the bull market characterized by alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) surpassing bitcoin Could happen soon, President Donald Trump planning to give citizens “tariff dividends” in a decision that could arouse more risky financial behavior among the beneficiaries.
“They are just starting to intervene,” said Trump about prices in an interview with Onerica News Network quoted by the New York Post, “but ultimately, your prices will exceed a dollar billion per year.”
Trump said his main goal was to use income to reduce federal debt. He also said that he could distribute some of the Americans as a discount up to $ 2,000, in what he described as “a dividend to the American people”.
The potential dividend, associated with interest rate reductions in the expected federal reserve, can reduce household budgetary constraints, stimulating a greater tendency to take financial risk and possibly stimulating investments in altcoins, which have been late on the largest cryptocurrencies this year.
The Coindesk 20 index of the largest cryptocurrencies climbed 48% in 2025, almost seven times more than the Coindesk 80 index of the following tokens.
The tendency to increase risk -taking has been described in a research document in 2023 by Marco Di Maggio at the Harvard Kennedy School. He found that more relaxed budget budget constraints thanks to recovery payments increased cryptography investment. The document added that the stricter future budgetary constraints due to higher expected inflation also increased cryptography investment, in accordance with coverage reasons.
There is also a precedent.
Altcoins experienced a spectacular increase in 2020-2021 while the government issued recovery checks to support households during the coronavirus pandemic. These unexpected gifts were largely channeled on the cryptography market, which caused frantic exchanges on the Altcoin market. The Bitcoin dominance rate, or its share in the total market capitalization of cryptography, collapsed at 39% from 73% in six months to May 2021.
“In 2020, crypto institutional rails were barely in place: no FNB spot, fragmented guard, regulatory ambiguity,” Jasper de Maere wrote, an over -the -counter office strategist with the main Wintermute market manufacturer, in a LinkedIn article. “Gatherings led by detail powered by stimulus controls and [ultra high-net worth individual] Cash, 80 to 90% of retail flows allowed rapid cascades of majors in Altcoins. “”
It remains to be seen whether the potential tariff dividend for the American people has a similar impact on the widening of the Bull Run of cryptography.
The gain in the cryptography market this year – total market capitalization is approximately $ 4 billions against $ 3.4 billion at the end of 2024 – is widely led by Bitcoin and other major tokens, such as ETH, SOL, BNB and XRP.
An Altcoins rose failed to keep pace is that American interest rates are now raised above 4%, as opposed to 2020, when they were pinned in Zero, which galvanized a return search in all corners of the financial market.
Another reason is the much larger market for total cryptography market itself, which has capped blind rallies on the wider market.
“Higher rates and much larger market capitalization make blind rallies Altcoin much less likely,” said Maere. Any future alt-season will be more selective and disciplined, driven by real utility rather than a speculative beateering, requiring a rigorous analysis to separate the real traction of the vaporware. “”
