Hello, Asia. Here’s what’s making news on the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top news stories during U.S. business hours and insight into market movements and analysis. For a detailed look at US markets, check out CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Bitcoin begins Thursday’s trading day in Asia above $123,000, and its chart resembles a rocket trail through the fog, analysts say, describing it as an aggressive rally fueled by ETF inflows, mid-level accumulation and the quiet belief that it’s not yet the top.
This conviction is based on three converging signals issued by the main market observers.
In its most recent note, QCP wrote that it envisions a rotation of capital from overcrowded AI stocks toward “credibility hedges” like gold and Bitcoin as political uncertainty deepens.
Glassnode indicates record ETF inflows and mid-level accumulation turning resistance into support. And CryptoQuant wrote that it sees on-chain profit-taking still well below all-time highs, suggesting the rally has room to continue even as leverage builds. Together, they describe a structurally bullish but tactically crowded market: steady hands below, froth at the top.
But the same data that speaks to conviction also points to complacency. Open interest rates on futures contracts are at record highs, funding rates are above 8%, and heavy call option positioning leaves the market vulnerable to a sharp decline if momentum fades. Analysts call this a classic “strong trend, weak hands” setup: one that often requires a leverage reset before the next leg up.
“The current pullback is now testing this leverage, helping to reset positioning and restore balance,” Glassnode wrote in its weekly report. QCP Capital added that “yesterday’s decline looked like positioning and not policy,” while CryptoQuant observed that “profit-taking remains subdued compared to previous market highs.”
Yet even among data desks, the message is not uniform. Glassnode warns that leverage must be eliminated before the rally can stabilize; CryptoQuant says the market still has room to run before euphoria sets in; and QCP presents this move as a macro rotation towards “credibility hedges” like gold and BTC.
The rise of Bitcoin is observed from three different altitudes.
With funding rates high and open interest continuing to climb, traders could benefit from the reset they have been warning about. The question is not whether Bitcoin can hold $120,000, but rather whether the next drop will prove the depth of the rally or expose its fragility.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin is trading above $123,000, steady after rebounding from this week’s pullback as ETF inflows and whale accumulation continue to support prices. Even though near-term momentum has slowed, institutional demand and the broader “depreciation trade” narrative keeps the uptrend intact heading into the seasonally bullish October period.
ETFs: Ethereum is trading at $4,516, remaining steady after recent volatility as traders return to major layer 1 assets. Sentiment remains supported by strong ETF inflows, optimism ahead of December’s Fusaka upgrade, and renewed institutional interest in DeFi staking and yields.
Gold: Gold surpassed $4,000 for the first time on Wednesday, its 40th record this year, driven by geopolitical tensions, fiscal uncertainty in the United States and sustained demand from central banks, led by the 11th consecutive month of gold purchases by China.
Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 1.1% on Thursday, lifted by a 10% rise in SoftBank after it agreed to buy ABB’s robotics unit for $5.4 billion, as optimism over Prime Minister-elect Sanae Takaichi’s expansionary agenda and continued accommodative monetary policy fueled gains in technology stocks and cyclical.
Elsewhere in crypto
- ‘Don’t be stupid’: Why Grant Cardone says Bitcoiners shouldn’t continue gold’s historic rally (Decrypt)
- Coinbase Hires a “Token and Governance Research Specialist” for its Core Team (The Block)
- Brevan Howard-backed tokenization company extends funds to Sei as RWA momentum grows (CoinDesk)
