By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
After a brief rebound on Wednesday, BTC and the broader crypto market fell back into the red on Thursday – despite Fed minutes showing a bias towards further rate cuts. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) also fell more than 1% to 4,163 points.
What is behind this new stumble? Much of this is likely due to the continued strength of the Dollar Index (DXY), which continues to diminish the appeal of USD-denominated assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown drags on, leaving traders in a holding pattern as they eagerly await Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech later Thursday for guidance on policy direction, especially with new jobs and inflation data temporarily on pause.
In global news, early Thursday brought a glimmer of hope when President Trump announced a peace deal between Israel and Hamas with possible hostage releases by Monday, confirmed by Qatari media. Nonetheless, oil prices edged above $62, suggesting traders remain cautious about the sustainability of the deal.
On the crypto front, Solana Digital asset treasury company Helius revealed plans to acquire at least 5% of Solana’s supply, Coinbase launched decentralized exchange (DEX) trading within its app for US users (except in New York), and the founder of Polymarket announced the possible launch of its native token, POLY.
Shifting into high gear in traditional markets, gold held above $4,000, defying the dollar’s rally, while S&P 500 futures held steady near record highs. Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JP Morgan, told the BBC he was “much more worried than most” about the possibility of a significant fall in stock markets in the coming months.
Stay vigilant!
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- October 9, 11:30 a.m.: The Casper Core Team (CSPR) hosts a monthly runtime update via Google Meet.
- October 9, 12 p.m.: The Cronos team (CRO) organizes an AMA on X.
- Macro
- October 9, 8 a.m.: Brazil, headline inflation rate in September, Est. 5.22%, MoM Est. 0.22%.
- October 9, 8 a.m.: September inflation rate in Mexico. Title YoY Est. 3.79%, MoM Est. 0.27. Core YoY Est. 4.28%, MoM Est. 0.32%.
- October 9, 8:30 a.m.: unemployment claims in the United States. Initial ((for the week ended October 4) Est. 223K, Continuous (for the week ended September 27) Est. 1930K. (Report delayed due to current federal government shutdown)
- October 9, 8:30 a.m.: Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell delivers welcoming remarks at the Community Banking Conference in Washington, DC. Watch live.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- Decentraland DAO votes to replace the DAO committee with a 3-of-5 multisig group of ecosystem representatives, moving execution-only tasks while the Council retains oversight. Voting closes on October 10.
- Unlocks
- October 10: to unlock 6.57% of its circulating supply worth $27.9 million.
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Symbolic discussion
By Olivier Knight
- Crypto exchange Binance has introduced Meme Rush, a platform designed to allow users to capitalize on a wave of Chinese-language memecoins.
- The platform directly taps into the memecoin craze by integrating early-stage meme token custody and trading into its wallet.
- It obtains listings through community launch centers (e.g. Four.Meme on BNB Chain), ranking them based on both on-chain volume and social traction, allowing Binance to capture speculative interest ahead of the DEX listing.
- Its built-in reward mechanisms (4 × Binance Alpha Points) align user activity with monetization. The rise of Chinese-language memecoin projects on BNB Chain is amplifying the hype and attracting attention across the ecosystem.
- On PancakeSwap v2, daily trading volume recently reached $15.55 billion, according to CoinMarketCap, highlighting how active the memecoin DEX markets remain.
- The majority of volume took place on lesser-known memecoins like 币安Holder, which accumulated approximately $1 billion in volume across 163,000 transactions.
Positioning of derivative products
- AVAX, ASTER, PUMP and XPL are behind the decline in futures open interest over the last 24 hours. The OI in BTC and ETH fell by 1% and 3%, respectively. These capital outflows probably come from taking profits on long positions.
- OI in USDT and USD-denominated perpetual BNB listed on major exchanges continues to hover below its September high, deviating bearishly from the rising spot price.
- Annualized perpetual funding rates continue to hover around 10% or below for most major tokens, a sign that the market remains healthy, with no signs of froth.
- On the CME, positioning remains high on ether futures versus bitcoin. OI on SOL futures is hovering at a record high above 9 million SOL, with premiums falling to 13%, the lowest since early September.
- On Deribit, the story remains the same: BTC and ETH continue to trade at a higher price than the calls until the end of December expiration. Block flows on Paradigm had risk reversals.
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.84% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $121,875.74 (24 hours: -0.87%)
- ETH is down 11.10% at $4,005.03 (24 hours: -3.5%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 2.49% at 4,161.60 (24h: -1.63%)
- Ether CESR composite staking rate is down 4 basis points to 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0054% (5.9141% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is unchanged at 98.90
- Gold futures are down 0.37% at $4,055.60
- Silver futures are down 0.45% at $48.78
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.77% at 48,580.44
- Hang Seng closed 0.29% lower at 26,752.59
- The FTSE is down 0.45% at 9,506.23
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.11% at 5,655.94
- DJIA closed Wednesday unchanged at 46,601.78
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.58% at 6,753.72
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.12% at 23,043.38
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.5% at 30,501.99
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.17% at 2,873.25
- The 10-year US Treasury yield is down 0.2 bps to 4.129%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures unchanged at 6,801.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures unchanged at 25,324.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average unchanged at 46,887.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.38% (0.63%)
- Ether/bitcoin ratio: 0.03568 (-2.78%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,011 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $50.97
- Total fees: 3.37 BTC / $414,551
- CME Futures Open Interest: 146,530 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 30 ounces
- Market capitalization BTC vs gold: 8.47%
Technical analysis
- Ether fell to $4,350 from $4,750 in two days, invalidating the bullish breakout from the flag pattern.
- The failed breakout indicates that sellers have regained control and the decline could deepen in the coming days.
- The Stochastic has become sharply lower compared to a reading above 80 or overbought, confirming the bearish scenario.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Wednesday at $387.27 (+3.06%), -1.6% to $381.07
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $150.46 (+1.17%), -1.12% at $148.77
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $41.39 (+4.57%), -0.8% to $41.06
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $67.41 (+3.55%), -1.5% at $66.40
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $20.2 (-0.25%), -0.89% at $20.02
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $21.99 (+2.42%), -1% at $21.77
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.53 (+2.51%), -0.11% at $17.51
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $18.98 (+5.68%), +0.47% to $19.07
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $55.38 (+3.75%), unchanged in pre-market
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $30.07 (+1.21%)
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $330.8 (+0.73%), -1.69% at $325.21
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $28.2 (-0.56%), +0.39% at $28.31
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $17.57 (-1.13%), -2.39% at $17.15
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $7.17 (+1.7%), -3.07% at $6.95
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.5 (+2.04%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flow: $440.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $62.53 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.35 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flow: $69.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $15.11 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.88 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
