Bitcoin and Ether traders remain in wait-and-see mode after last week’s tariff shock wiped out nearly $20 billion in leveraged positions over the weekend, shaking confidence and risk sentiment among the majority of market participants.
The market mood has since shifted from panic to fragile optimism as Washington and Beijing toned down their rhetoric, providing a brief pause in what looked like a simmering trade war.
Bitcoin rose 1.3% in the last 24 hours to around $113,000, while ether was trading near $4,100 after briefly crossing $4,200 overnight. Solana added 2.9% to $201.8, XRP gained 2% and climbed 2.3% to $0.20. The broader market capitalization stands at $3.9 trillion, still about 6% lower than before the crash but up 4.4% from Sunday’s lows, the data show.
The mood improves, although unevenly. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index rebounded to 38 from Sunday’s extreme reading of 24, signaling that traders are tiptoeing back. FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich called Friday’s collapse “an emotional surge” that forced weak positions on the stock markets:
“The selling began in reaction to headlines about tariffs, but it turned into a wave of forced liquidations. Such drastic moves often mark the short-term bottom of the market – although recovery takes time,” he said in an email to CoinDesk.
Friday’s crash, which sent bitcoin below its 50- and 200-day moving averages, has historical echoes. Similar collapses in 2020, 2021 and 2024 reset leverage and set the stage for rallies in the weeks that followed. But in 2022, it took months for confidence to return – a timeline that bargain hunters are now carefully assessing.
Over the weekend, China’s Commerce Ministry clarified that its rare earth export restrictions were not blanket bans, saying applications would still be subject to licensing. Trump echoed this softer tone, saying that “the United States wants to help China, not hurt it.”
Betting markets on Polymarket are now pricing in just a 15% chance of rates being 100% by November 1, down sharply from 26% at the end of Friday.
This change eased pressure on risky assets. U.S. stocks recovered some of Friday’s loss, and crypto followed a familiar pattern in recent months, where digital assets followed macroeconomic sentiment rather than decoupling from it.
At the same time, the Kobeissi Letter described the crash as “a technical, not a structural event,” caused by cascading margin calls rather than a fundamental change in positioning.
Analyst Frank Fetter added that crypto markets “remain far from overbought,” leaving room for a potential rebound if volatility remains contained.
