Bitcoin slipped below $107,000 during Friday’s Asian session, extending a slow downward drift as macroeconomic uncertainty and liquidity stress kept traders cautious in crypto markets.
“The bounce from Sunday and Monday failed to develop and the 50-day moving average acted as local resistance,” noted Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro chief market analyst, in an email. “The market is retesting the strength of 3-month support near current levels. Such persistence of the bears suggests that the next step will be a test of the 200-day average, which exceeds $3.5 trillion.”
“The market crossed this line in May; touching it in late July triggered strong buying,” Kuptsikevich said, giving guidance on levels to watch.
The market’s recovery from last week’s selloff shock appears to have run out of steam, with the rally from earlier in the week reversing and major tokens falling each day.
Ether was trading around $3,895, while BNB, Solana, and XRP were down between 5% and 7%, each giving back most of their post-crash rebound. and Cardano’s ADA are down more than 20% since the start of the week, due to a lack of speculative fervor.
The tone in risk-off markets deteriorated overnight as traders turned to stablecoins, avoiding bitcoin and smaller tokens ahead of major Federal Reserve and geopolitical catalysts.
“Altcoins are under pressure as liquidity continues to return to Bitcoin and stablecoins amid risk aversion,” Wenny C., COO at SynFutures, said in a message to CoinDesk, adding that thinner order books have amplified volatility in secondary markets.
Despite the red screens, analysts say the pullback looks more like a controlled deleveraging than a panic. Open interest on exchanges fell to its lowest level mid-year and ETF inflows remain stable, suggesting long-term capital is tight.
“This latest decline reflects a decline in speculative appetite after last week’s macroeconomic data,” Wenny said, emphasizing that “nothing structural has really changed.”
Nassar Achkar, chief strategy officer at CoinW, said leverage trades tend to establish cleaner bases.
“Resilient ETF inflows and whale accumulation are stabilizing markets. The path to a sustainable rebound will depend on how quickly this underlying capital converts into new risk taking,” Achkar told CoinDesk.
Focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s October FOMC meeting, where traders will expect a strongly dovish speech after Chairman Jerome Powell hinted last week that quantitative tightening could soon end.
Futures imply a 65% probability of a 25 basis point decline, which would extend risk support through the end of the year if confirmed.
Outside of crypto, gold briefly hit a new record high before retreating, while the yen strengthened on safe-haven bids after renewed trade tensions between the United States and China. The standoff injected volatility into commodities and stocks, sending Asian shares to their lowest level in two weeks.
Yet some see opportunity in the turbulence. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes called the pullback a “buying window,” while K33 Research said the reduction in leverage leaves “room to rebuild spot BTC positions.”
The current reset reflects past cycle pauses, where debt collapsed before new capital returned. Whether this rotation comes before or after the next Fed signal will likely determine the rest of October.
