The crypto market is a sea of red as ongoing trade tensions and tightening liquidity in the U.S. financial system drive demand for safe-haven Treasuries.
Bitcoin fell below its 200-day SMA to trade near $104,500, representing a 6% decline in 24 hours. Other major tokens such as ether , Solana , and BNB are down from 8% to 12%.
The CoinDesk 20 index fell almost 9% to 3,389 points. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 22, signaling extreme investor fear for the first time since at least April’s market turmoil.
According to Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, the selloff represents a tactical liquidity event linked to macro uncertainty.
“Positioning should be defensive, reduce leverage, keep liquidity dry, and use staggered spot purchases between $104,000 and $108,000 if liquidity allows,” Misir said in a note to CoinDesk.
“The structural narratives (ETF adoption, treasuries, network fundamentals) remain intact, but the current environment rewards discipline: defend core BTC, move cautiously into ETH and alts, and wait for confirmation of sustained buyer flows before rebuilding directional risk,” he added.
Positioning of derivative products
- The BTC futures market is showing stability, with open interest remaining steady at around $25.7 billion and the 3-month annualized basis remaining firm in the 5-6% range. Unlike previous days, funding rates are now stable across all major venues.
- The BTC options market exhibits extreme and conflicting sentiments. The 24-hour Put/Call volume shows a slight bearish bias with a 45-55 split favoring puts. However, this is overshadowed by the Delta Skew 25’s one-week surge to around 21%. This exceptionally high positive skew indicates aggressive positioning and a massive premium paid for short-term call options, signaling high conviction for a near-term rally despite active demand for downside protection.
- Data from Coinglass shows $1.2 billion in liquidations over 24 hours, with a 78-22 split between long and short positions. ETH ($414 million), BTC ($268 million), and Others ($109 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. Binance’s liquidation heatmap shows $103,800 as the base liquidation level to watch, in case of a price decline.
Symbolic discussion
By Olivier Knight
- The entire crypto market is reeling on Friday after a continued decline, with several assets hitting multi-month lows.
- Ether is trading at $3,730 after falling more than 7% in the past 24 hours, while stocks like BNB, LINK, and SUI are all down more than 10%.
- The move was prompted by the liquidation of derivatives positions worth another $1.2 billion, or $840 million on the long side, adding to the woes of last weekend, when $19 billion was liquidated.
- Stocks are also showing weakness, with the S&P500 losing 3.3% of its value over the past week, a selloff that is reflected in the more illiquid and speculative crypto market.
- Much of the altcoin market depends on the direction of bitcoin; if it can sustain above the $100,000 psychological support level and perhaps more importantly the $98,000 level, this could provide the impetus for altcoins’ recovery.
- If these levels are breached, onlookers will wonder if the crypto market is falling back into a dreaded bear market, a cycle that many analysts believe would not happen this time around due to institutional flows into crypto ETFs and the purchasing power of digital asset treasury (DAT) companies.
