Crypto traders have long referred to the month of October as “Uptober,” in colloquialism that refers to the month’s tendency to generate the biggest rallies for bitcoin. But this year’s results are shaping up to be the worst since 2015 so far.
Bitcoin is down 5% month to date, trading near $107,000 as of late Asian time on Sunday, according to CoinGlass data. The historical average for October is around 19.8%, next to the 42% for November, which is the strongest month for the asset.
Macroeconomic risk has drowned out seasonality. The U.S.-China tariff standoff, weak liquidity and a series of leverages combined to limit the rise.
Bitcoin’s fall below $107,000 last week triggered another $1.2 billion in liquidations, wiping out long positions built after the September rebound. Ethereum, Solana and BNB are each down 4-7% for the week, while smaller tokens like And fell by more than 20%. The CoinDesk 20 Index is down 8% in October.
October’s red streak is not unprecedented, but it is rare. Bitcoin has only closed the month lower twice in twelve years – 2014 and 2018, the latter ending with a 3% decline.
However, in 2020, bitcoin went from a loss in early October to a 27% rise by the end of the month, setting the records for the following year. Two weeks from the end, the calendar still leaves room for a reversal.
“Uptober” may not be, but it’s testing its name this year.
