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George Springer grabbed a place in Toronto Blue Jays history when he hit a three-run homer in the seventh inning that propelled his team to a 4-3 victory over the Seattle Mariners in Game 7 of the AL Championship Series.
Springer’s hit to left field Monday night didn’t have quite the same impact as Joe Carter’s homer that gave Toronto the World Series in 1993, or even Dave Winfield’s extra-double that helped the Blue Jays edge Atlanta for the title in 1992. But for a hit that occurred outside of the World Series, Springer’s hit had a terrible impact.
A statistic called championship win probability added (cWPA) – published by Baseball Reference – measures how much a particular game increased or decreased a team’s chances of winning that year’s World Series. It depends on when it happened in the game – and when that game happened in the overall context of the season.
Springer’s homer increased Toronto’s chances of winning the World Series by 19.73%. It ranks among the 10 greatest non-World Series games since 1903. Here is the full list:
10. Chris Chambliss, New York Yankees (1976)
Chris Chambliss’ solo home run in the bottom of the ninth to give the New York Yankees a 7-6 victory over Kansas City in Game 5 of the 1976 ALCS. (cWPA of 18.77%)
The LCS was best-of-five before 1985, so this Chambliss homer was a draw in a winner-take-all game. It also sparked a full-on crowd scene as fans invaded the field at Yankee Stadium. Baseball Reference’s cWPA data shows Chambliss’ drive just ahead of a similar home run by the Yankees’ Aaron Boone in Game 7 of the ALCS 27 years later.
9. Cecil Cooper, Milwaukee Brewers (1982)
Cecil Cooper’s two-run single in the seventh gave the Milwaukee Brewers a 4-3 lead against the California Angels in Game 5 of the 1982 ALCS. (19.66%)
That 4-3 lead held up to give Milwaukee the pennant in a series that California led 2-0 at one point. The Angels also blew a 3-1 lead in the 1986 ALCS.
8. George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays (2025)
(Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
Springer’s three-run homer in the bottom of the seventh that gave Toronto a 4-3 lead over Seattle in Game 7 of the 2025 ALCS. (19.73%)
Like Cooper’s hit, Springer’s drive turned a deficit into a lead in the seventh inning of a winner-take-all LCS game. Give Springer extra points for erasing a multirun deficit.
7. Manny Trillo, Philadelphia Phillies (1980)
Manny Trillo’s two-run triple with two outs in the top of the eighth gave the Philadelphia Phillies a 7-5 lead against the Houston Astros in Game 5 of the 1980 NLCS. (19.79%)
This two-point lead did not actually hold. Houston tied the game, but the Phillies ultimately won 8-7 in 10, so those two points were huge.
6. Jack Clark, St. Louis Cardinals (1985)
Jack Clark’s two-out three-run homer in the top of the ninth gave the St. Louis Cardinals a 7-5 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 6 of the 1985 NLCS. (19.83%)
The Dodgers threw to Clark with first base open and he made them pay. It’s the only game on this list that didn’t go down in a winner-take-all game, but it sent the Cardinals to the World Series when they were one out away from Game 7.
5. Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals (2006)
(Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
Yadier Molina’s two-run homer in the top of the ninth gave St. Louis a 3-1 lead over the New York Mets in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS. (20.71%)
After a spectacular catch by New York’s Endy Chavez against the left field wall earlier in the game, Molina sent this ball well beyond. The Cardinals held off a late-inning New York rally to win the pennant.
4. Rick Monday, Los Angeles Dodgers (1981)
Rick Monday’s solo home run in the top of the ninth gave the Dodgers a 2-1 lead over the Montreal Expos in Game 5 of the 1981 NLCS. (21.18%)
That homer – hit with two outs – ranks slightly ahead of Molina’s one-out shot. Both provided the final score of the match.
3. Johnny Bench, Cincinnati Reds (1972)
(Photo by © Bettmann/CORBIS/Bettmann Archive)
Solo homer by Johnny Bench in the bottom of the ninth for the Cincinnati Reds who tied Game 5 of the 1972 NLCS against Pittsburgh at 3. (22.52%)
The Pirates were three outs from the World Series, but those never came. Bench led off with this opposite-field drive, and Cincinnati scored the pennant-winning run on a wild pitch later in the inning.
2. Bobby Thomson, New York Giants (1951)
Bobby Thomson’s three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth that gave the New York Giants a 5-4 victory over the Brooklyn Dodgers in the third game of a tiebreaker series for the National League pennant in 1951. (35.56%)
Thomson’s “Shot Heard ‘Round The World” was technically not a postseason game, as the playoffs are considered part of the regular season. Still, it was a winner-take-all game for a spot in the World Series, and Thomson’s team went from trailing by two runs to winning in one legendary swing.
1. Francisco Cabrera, Atlanta Braves (1992)
Francisco Cabrera’s two-run, two-out single in the bottom of the ninth gave the Atlanta Braves a 3-2 victory over Pittsburgh in Game 7 of the 1992 NLCS. (36.84%)
Cabrera remains one of baseball’s most unlikely heroes, having only 11 plate appearances during the 1992 regular season. He ranks just ahead of Thomson. Although Thomson’s hit erased a larger deficit, Cabrera’s hit had two outs while Thomson’s hit had only one out.
Associated Press reporting.
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