Hello, Asia. Here’s what’s making news on the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top news stories during U.S. business hours and insight into market movements and analysis. For a detailed look at US markets, check out CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Crypto markets entered a holding pattern mid-week.
Bitcoin is trading around $108,164, up slightly from Monday but still down 2% for the week, while Ether is changing hands near $3,815.
The rebound reflects what QCP Capital called a “short-range equilibrium,” as traders await Friday’s CPI report, the only release of major U.S. economic data not to be delayed by the shutdown.
In its note, QCP said the CPI is the “singular anchor” of policy expectations and risk sentiment, noting that a weaker 0.2% figure could “re-anchor soft trading” and support Bitcoin’s uptrend as liquidity expectations improve. Until then, volatility is expected to remain elevated, with declines finding support if the dollar and real yields ease further.
Polymarket traders now assign a 77% chance that Washington and Beijing will reach a tariff deal by November 10, while the odds that Trump’s promised 100% tariffs on China will take effect have fallen to 16%.
In its memo, QCP asserts that Trump will once again opt for a symbolic agreement rather than confrontation, thus making the upcoming meeting with Xi “pragmatic,” a view reinforced by his softer remarks over the weekend that “the United States wants to help China, not harm it.”
The relative calm in both cryptocurrencies and stocks reflects this narrative of relaxation.
Last week’s $20 billion selloff and Binance collateral mispricing have largely run their course, opening a cleaner slate for macro traders as the CPI event approaches. Whether this calm remains will depend on whether Friday’s inflation numbers maintain the “soft landing” story or reignite the volatility that markets are just beginning to shake off.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin is trading above $108,000, consolidating after a recent rise, with sellers limiting immediate breakout potential while analysts at Standard Chartered say a drop below $100,000 could be a “last chance to buy” before the next rise.
ETFs: Ethereum is trading around $3,800 with volume up 33% as traders pile in ahead of US inflation data, although a $650 million move by the Ethereum Foundation has triggered $700 million in profit-taking and lengthy liquidations, leaving analysts divided between a potential breakout towards $5,000 or a decline towards 2,850 $ if support at $3,470 fails.
Gold: Gold continues to see a record sell-off with futures down 0.3% at $4,097.80 an ounce after Tuesday’s 5.7% fall, as investors took profits on its record run, even as analysts said heavy central bank buying and expectations of rate cuts should hold bullion up.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets fell on Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.5%, after reports that the Trump administration may restrict exports to China reignited trade tensions between the United States and China.
Elsewhere in crypto
- Crypto Is Finally Growing Up, Says Venture Capital Giant Andreessen Horowitz (Decrypt)
- Crypto lost 1,000 jobs to AI since ChatGPT launched, but gained them back in other sectors, says a16z report (Fortune)
- Tensions Rise as Senate Democrats, Crypto Executives Meet on Broad Digital Assets Bill (The Block)
