By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Crypto market seeks to regain bullish momentum, with bitcoin trying to exceed $110,000. The CoinDesk 20 Index is up more than 1% in the past 24 hours, alongside double-digit gains for a few select tokens such as HYPE, KHYPE, and XMR.
Sentiment on social media remains upbeat, thanks to expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points next week, continuing what is known as the liquidity easing cycle. However, it should be noted that the dollar index continues to show an upward price trend. A strengthening of the dollar could limit the rise of BTC.
Risk proxies such as the iShares iBoxx $High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) are also not favorable. Both have recently penetrated key support levels. (See TA section). At the same time, key volume studies point to underlying weakness in the bitcoin market.
Taken together, these factors validate the persistent sell bias in the BTC options listed in the short-term bearish outlook from Deribit and Standard Chartered.
The founders of newsletter service LondonCryptoClub said recent strains on bank funding and liquidity tightening are “keeping BTC anchored and negatively impacting underlying risk dynamics.” Still, they added that the uptrend is far from over, pointing to falling bond yields and economic downturn risks as catalysts for aggressive Fed easing that could cause a “meltdown.”
In traditional markets, oil rose 4% on both sides of the Atlantic after the United States imposed sanctions on major Russian suppliers Rosneft and Lukoil over the war in Ukraine. Increased volatility in the oil market could cause risk aversion. Stay vigilant!
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- October 23, 9 a.m.: Binance Square is hosting an AMA on “how early-stage projects grow, build communities, and navigate their Alpha journey.”
- Macro
- Oct. 23, 8:30 a.m.: Due to the federal government shutdown, the U.S. Department of Labor is not releasing its usual weekly reports on initial and continuing unemployment claims.
- October 23, 10 a.m.: Estimated sales of existing homes in September in the United States. 4.1M.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- SSV DAO votes to amend DIP-31, refocusing SSV 2.0 on Compose, a protocol enabling atomic cross-rollup transactions to reduce L2 fragmentation and advance SSV beyond distributed commit technology. Voting closes on October 23.
- Unlocks
- October 23: Soon (SOON) will release 4.52% of its circulating supply worth $12.4 million.
- Token Launches
- October 23: DFDV ordinary shareholders will receive a warrant dividend.
- October 23: Venice (VVV) will reduce the inflation of its symbolic offer from 10 million/year to 8 million/year.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Symbolic discussion
By Francisco Rodrigues
- Jupiter’s native token JUP is up more than 3% in the past 24 hours after the decentralized exchange recorded strong growth across key trading metrics in the third quarter.
- The Solana-based project is also looking to launch its own stablecoin and prediction marketplace.
- Quarterly revenue rose 19.2% to $45.8 million, while trading volume, driven by spot and perpetual products, jumped 71% to $242.8 billion.
- Fees generated reached $121.5 million, up nearly 48% from the second quarter. Despite this growth, JUP’s market capitalization fell slightly by 1.5% to $1.35 billion.
- Jupiter attributed this growth to the rollout of new products, including its Ultra v3 trading engine and a lending protocol that the team says is one of the fastest growing on Solana. Active wallets increased 5% to 8.4 million, and total value locked (TVL) increased 41.7% to $3.4 billion.
- JUP outperformed the broader crypto market, which rose 1.6% based on the performance of the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20).
Positioning of derivative products
- Open interest (OI) on HYPE futures surged 17% in 24 hours, reaching a two-week high of 40.24 million HYPE. Occurring alongside rising prices and positive funding rates, this increase indicates growing demand for leveraged bullish exposure.
- The OI in BTC and ETH barely changed, a sign that traders are reluctant to place bets ahead of Friday’s US CPI release.
- Volmex’s BVIV, which measures BTC’s 30-day annualized implied volatility, has retreated slightly to 50% but remains well above the September low of 35%. This high level reflects ongoing concerns about new risks such as automatic deleveraging and liquidity issues.
- Funding rates for major cryptocurrencies continue to hover near zero, a sign of balanced market conditions. XMR and BNB rates are slightly negative, indicating a bias for bearish short positions.
- On Deribit, feeds featured BTC sell spreads. Overall, puts continue to trade at a premium to calls.
Market movements
- BTC is up 1.63% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $109,459.82 (24 hours: +1.74%)
- ETH is up 2.92% at $3,892.29 (24 hours: +2.05%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 2.57% at 3,602.20 (24 hours: +1.59%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 3 Basis Points to 2.86%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0038% (4.1303% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is up 0.15% at 99.04
- Gold futures are up 1.73% at $4,135.80
- Silver futures are up 2.22% at $48.74
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.35% at 48,641.61
- Hang Seng closed 0.72% higher at 25,967.98
- The FTSE is up 0.43% at 9,555.49
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.21% at 5,650.92
- DJIA closed Wednesday down 0.71% at 46,590.41
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.53% at 6,699.40
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.93% at 22,740.40
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.32% at 29,982.98
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.49% at 2,894.55
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is up 4 basis points to 3.993%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures were little changed at 6,738.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures were little changed at 25,057.25
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.24% at 46,672.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.79% (-0.12%)
- Ether/bitcoin ratio: 0.03557 (0.57%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,116 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $47.17
- Total fees: 2.89 BTC / $312,945
- Open interest on CME futures: 142,385 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 26 ounces
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 7.34%
Technical analysis
- The iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) recently broke out of an uptrend line, signaling renewed seller dominance.
- The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) long-range play has resolved to the downside.
- These distributions suggest the possibility of widespread risk aversion to come.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Wednesday at $320.33 (-5.4%), +0.94% to $323.33 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $124.79 (-3.9%), +1.69% to $126.90
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $37.34 (-12.88%), +1.23% to $37.80
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $52.63 (-8.1%), +1.48% at $53.41
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.15 (-4.58%), +1.36% to $19.41
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $18.99 (-8.13%), +1.21% to $19.22
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.8 (-7.44%), +2.36% at $18.22
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $16.86 (-10.18%), +2.43% at $17.27
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $51.32 (-8.37%), +2.81% to $52.76
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $23.28 (-5.67%)
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $280.81 (-6.99%), +2.3% to $287.28
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $22.53 (-4.17%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $13.44 (-6.28%), +2.16% to $13.73
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $4.75 (-6.68%), +3.79% to $4.93
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.86 (-4.62%), +6.99% at $1.99
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF:
- Daily net flows: -$101.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $61.84 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.35 million
Spot ETH ETF:
- Daily net flows: -$18.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.59 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.78 million
Source: Farside Investors
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