By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin is hovering around $113,000 after falling 1.4% in 24 hours, while the broader crypto market, measured via the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), fell 2%.
These declines come amid a rotation into stablecoins ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later today. An interest rate cut of 25 basis points is a virtual certainty. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 99.9% probability of this happening, while Polymarket traders estimate the probability at 98.1%.
Traders are also watching for signs that the Fed is about to slow its balance sheet runoff, which would further ease financial conditions and be a potential boon for risk assets.
Commercial activity has weakened. Liquidity on centralized exchanges has fallen sharply, with order book depth sitting at just 40% of pre-liquidation levels, according to Foresight Ventures, as traders turn to stablecoins.
“Traders are moving to USD stablecoins and concentrating liquidity into large order books,” Gracie Lin, CEO of OKX Singapore, told CoinDesk. According to Wintermute, stablecoin supply is up again for the first time since September, showing that “macro tailwinds are starting to translate into new inflows.”
Likewise, perpetual futures funding rates are now positive again for most major tokens, while open interest in BTC and ETH is “building back up at a measured pace.”
“Although Uptober had a false start, macroeconomic tailwinds, cooling inflation, ‘stabilization’ of geopolitical tensions and an accommodative Fed set the stage for a favorable remainder of the year, which historically (the fourth quarter) has been the strongest for bitcoin,” wrote Jasper De Maere, strategist at Wintermute’s OTC office.
Positioning and favorable macroeconomic factors seem to suggest that a breakout is imminent, a position that various analysts appear to be taking. Still, President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week could increase uncertainty. Stay vigilant!
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- October 29: Grayscale’s Solana Trust converts to a cash ETF listed on NYSE Arca under the symbol GSOL.
- Macro
- October 29, 9:45 a.m.: Bank of Canada decision on interest rates. Key interest rate (previously 2.5%). The press conference begins 45 minutes later; watch live.
- October 29, 2 p.m.: Federal Reserve decision on interest rates. Fed Funds Rate Target Range East. 3.75%-4%. The press conference begins 30 minutes later; watch live.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- Lisk DAO votes on a 4 million LSK proposal to create a Lisk DAO fund, replacing grants with investments in top Lisk startups. Voting closes on October 29.
- ZKsync DAO votes on allocating ZK33 million (~$1.65 million) to the ZKsync association to maintain and improve governance infrastructure until 2026. Voting closes on October 29.
- ENS DAO votes to fund ENS Contract Naming Season, a six-month program led by Enscribe with 75,000 USDC and 10,000 ENS to promote smart contract naming, drive ENS adoption, and improve Ethereum’s UX. Voting closes on October 29.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Symbolic discussion
By Olivier Knight
- The altcoin market began showing signs of strength on Wednesday, with traders shifting to higher beta tokens ahead of potential political headlines.
- The TRUMP token, touted by President Donald Trump in January, led the movement, rallying as optimism grew that a U.S.-China trade deal could be reached.
- has also increased, supported by constant activity on base-based DeFi protocols. The token added 7.2% reaching its highest level since the beginning of the month.
- The market has consistently shown a preference for bitcoin, with CoinMarketCap’s altcoin season indicator remaining at 26/100.
- Altcoin gains were limited to memecoins and DeFi tokens, while larger tokens traded in tight ranges.
- and hedera (HBAR) both gave up much of their gains on Wednesday, with the former down 6.9% in 24 hours while hedera fell 4.5% despite a spot HBAR ETF going live on the NYSE on Tuesday.
Positioning of derivative products
- The BTC futures market remains stable, with open interest (OI) at $26.8 billion.
- Funding rates are widely divergent, however: Deribit is up aggressively at 24.64% annualized, signaling strong demand for long positions, while OKX has fallen to -3%, where short positions are paid out.
- This mix of high OI and polarized funding rates indicates high near-term market volatility and uncertainty, disrupting previously uniform bullish sentiment.
- In the options market, Bitcoin is showing a strong surge in bullish conviction. The term structure of implied volatility (IV) displays a slight short-term backwardation (downward slope) before normalizing to long-term contango (upward slope).
- Short-term bullish sentiment has increased significantly, with a 250-10% delta bias for the one-week expiration, meaning traders are paying a substantial premium for call options. This is further validated by the 24-hour put-call volume, which is strongly in favor of calls (60%).
- Data from Coinglass shows $514 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with a 69-31 split between long and short positions. ETH ($155 million), BTC ($114 million), and SOL ($57 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.
- Binance’s liquidation heatmap shows $114,350 as the base liquidation level to watch, in case of a price rally.
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.23% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $113,094.99 (24 hours: -1.34%)
- ETH is up 0.53% at $4,003 (24 hours: -2.87%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.72% at 3,755.92 (24h: -2.03%)
- Ether CESR composite staking rate is down 4 basis points to 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0036% (3.9431% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is up 0.21% at 98.88
- Gold futures are up 1.35% at $4,036.70
- Silver futures are up 2.21% at $48.37
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.17% at 51,307.65
- Hang Seng closed 0.33% lower at 26,346.14
- The FTSE is up 0.47% at 9,742.64
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.27% at 5,719.98
- DJIA closed Tuesday up 0.34% at 47,706.37
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.23% at 6,890.89
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.80% at 23,827.49
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.48% at 30,419.68
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.86% at 2,979.82
- The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 0.8 bps to 3.991%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.12% at 6,934.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.26% at 26,232.75
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.27% at 47,768.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.84% (-0.24%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03537 (0.31%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,137 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $48.69
- Total fees: 2.94 BTC / $335,834
- CME Futures Open Interest: 143,590 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 26.9 ounces.
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 7.58%
Technical analysis
- The total market cap ratio of Altcoin (excluding the top 10 cryptocurrencies)/bitcoin is based on critical long-term weekly support.
- The lack of a clear recovery signal makes this position very precarious, as a breakdown below this level would imply an even greater decline and market difficulties for the broader altcoin sector.
- With the next resistance at 36% and the next support at -27% below, the current risk/reward ratio is unfavorable for broad altcoin exposure relative to bitcoin.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Tuesday at $355.22 (-1.72%), +0.28% to $356.20 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closes at $136.11 (-5.01%), unchanged pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $37.29 (-8.04%), +0.4% to $37.44
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $54.01 (-4.08%), +0.54% at $54.30
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.88 (-3.48%), +0.58% to $18.99
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $21.56 (-6.28%), +1.37% to $21.85
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $20.09 (+1.11%), +1.54% to $20.40
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $19.15 (-5.2%), +1.51% to $19.44
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $59.48 (-2.24%), +0.79% to $59.95
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $25.01 (-3.88%)
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $284.64 (-3.72%), +0.31% at $285.51
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $27.22 (-13.42%), +2.87% to $28
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $13.74 (-3.98%), -1.38% at $13.55
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $4.63 (-6.28%), +1.73% to $4.71
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.93 (-7.66%), +1.04% to $1.95
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: $202.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $62.3 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.36 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $246 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.75 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.75 million
Source: Farside Investors
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