Hello, Asia. Here’s what’s making news on the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top news stories during U.S. business hours and insight into market movements and analysis. For a detailed look at US markets, check out CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Bitcoin is trading around $109,000 as Hong Kong begins its business day, as traders continue to digest comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that another rate cut is not a certainty, cooling demand for BTC ETFs and other risk assets.
Stock market traders now estimate a 71% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting, down sharply from around 90% before Powell’s remarks. The chance of no change increased to 26%, showing how quickly traders recalibrated their expectations after the press conference.
According to the latest weekly report from CryptoQuant, US investor demand for crypto has cooled significantly. Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a seven-day average outflow of 281 BTC, one of the lowest figures since April, while ether inflows are almost at a standstill. Coinbase premiums for both coins have stabilized near zero and the CME futures basis has fallen to its lowest level in several years, signaling that institutional and retail traders are taking profits rather than adding exposure.
Glassnode’s on-chain analytics paint a similar picture of decreasing conviction. Bitcoin continues to struggle below short-term holders’ cost basis of around $113,000, with long-term holders distributing around 104,000 BTC per month. Transfer volumes from these wallets to exchanges soared to $293 million per day, suggesting seasoned investors are taking advantage of weakening demand.
The broader crypto market reflects this weariness. Solana fell 8% on Thursday, as CoinDesk previously reported, to $186 despite the launch of the first Solana spot ETFs in the United States.
Bitwise’s BSOL brought in $116 million in two days, and Grayscale’s GSOL attracted $1.4 million, but the token’s decline erased its year-over-year gains. Sentiment was further dampened by large on-chain transfers from Jump Crypto to Galaxy Digital, which sparked speculation about portfolio rebalancing.
With moderate volatility indicators and balanced positioning, traders are now watching the Fed’s next move. Currently, traders at Polymarket assign a 55% chance of no change, which has increased slightly since Powell’s recent comments.
When the U.S. government officially reopens and data is released that paints a worse picture of the economy than currently known, Powell’s position could change. And cryptocurrency traders will be paying attention.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin fell about 5% in the past 24 hours to around $109,800, giving back its earlier weekly gains as traders reacted to Powell’s hawkish comments and dwindling inflows into U.S. ETFs.
ETFs: Ether slipped 1.8% to around $3,850, extending its month-long decline as U.S. spot ETF inflows slowed to near zero and demand for futures contracts weakened.
Gold: Gold fell $16.50 to $3,984.70 and silver slipped to $47.89 as Powell’s hawkish comments after the Fed’s rate cut dampened hopes for further easing and lifted Treasury yields.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks rose on Friday after Trump and Xi agreed to ease trade tensions in South Korea, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbing more than 1% to a new record high.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- Drake and Adin Ross Sued for “Deeply Fraudulent” Crypto Casino Stake Promotion (Decrypt)
- UFC-Approved FIGHT Token Sale Raises $183M, Surpassing $1.5M Goal (CoinDesk)
- Western Union Registers “WUUSD” Trademark One Day After Revealing USDPT Stablecoin (Decrypt)
