Can Bitcoin experience a bullish November?

Bitcoin started November under pressure after closing out its worst October in a decade, slipping below $105,000 earlier Tuesday as selling among the majors intensified following last week’s Federal Reserve decision.

BTC fell 2.8% in the last 24 hours, while Ether fell 6% to around $3,630. Solana led the losses with a 10% decline to below $160, extending its seven-day decline to over 20%. BNB lost 6.4% and XRP 5%, while and Cardano’s ADA fell by around 6% each.

The widespread decline shaved another $100 billion off the total crypto market cap, which now hovers around $3.6 trillion.

“The crypto market is trying to break through its local bottom,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. “Bitcoin’s repeated testing of its 200-day moving average suggests fragile support, and a deeper retracement cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless, if the structure mirrors the April pattern, buyers may soon find the starting point for another upward move.”

October’s 4.5% drop ended Bitcoin’s long streak of positive results thus far and highlighted how macroeconomic caution has returned. The Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point cut last week was widely expected, but Chairman Jerome Powell’s restrained tone dampened risk appetite after he suggested the December cut was not guaranteed.

“Bitcoin’s first Red October in seven years has certainly attracted attention, but I see it more as a healthy reset than a structural reversal,” said Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures. “The current pullback looks more like a consolidation within a broader uptrend. Long-term holders continue to accumulate and ETF flows remain stable.”

Fed data on Monday showed a $29.4 billion repo operation – the largest since 2020 – injecting short-term liquidity into the US banking system and helping stabilize broader risk sentiment. Although this is not a return to quantitative easing, the move indicates that policymakers remain attentive to liquidity tensions.

Historically, November has been one of the strongest months for Bitcoin, with gains in nine of the last 12 years. Whether this seasonal trend continues may depend on how quickly traders regain conviction – and whether the Fed’s “soft pivot” narrative translates into new capital flows into crypto.

November is one of the strongest months for bulls. (Cash)

The drop reflects broader risk aversion in stocks and commodities, as investors reassess the Fed’s cautious messaging and lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

Meanwhile, futures linked to the S&P 500 traded lower on Tuesday, while gold continued its decline from record highs near $4,400, erasing some of last month’s safe-haven rally. Treasury yields, meanwhile, have stabilized after briefly falling following the Fed’s liquidity injection.

Tight weekend order books and aggressive unwinding of leveraged long positions amplified every move lower, with more than $1.2 billion in liquidations recorded over the past 48 hours. Financing rates have normalized, but the positioning remains defensive.

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