By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin continues to decline around $103,000, struggling to extend Wednesday’s rally below $100,000. The CoinDesk 20 Index is up 2% in 24 hours, alongside gains of 18% for ZEC, ICP and QNT.
The crypto market currently resembles a game of musical chairs: liquidity flows from one token to another, without new inflows, in what Wintermute calls a “self-funding mode.”
New inflows have been slowing for months across all three channels through which capital enters the ecosystem: stablecoins, ETFs and digital asset treasuries (DATs), Wintermute said.
U.S.-listed spot ETFs, for example, saw cumulative outflows of more than $1.5 billion in less than two weeks and demand from treasury companies for digital assets has fallen sharply from third-quarter highs.
Interestingly, the absence of fiat inflows comes even as the M2 money supply in major countries continues to increase. This may be because the increase in M2, driven by fiscal spending, aims to stimulate a global capital spending cycle focused on technology, particularly AI, infrastructure, and boost domestic demand.
The key question is when will cash start flowing again? Perhaps soon, as the Fed “sinks into a bubble,” as Ray Dalio described it in his article X, calling it inflationary. High inflation could support demand for gold and similar assets such as Bitcoin. Altcoins involved in AI or those linked to fiscal stimulus recipients may also perform well, while others may struggle.
For now, traders should watch Bitcoin’s interaction with its 50-week simple moving average, crucial bull market support since early 2023. A strong rebound here could signal new record highs.
Separately, crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) has urged the US Treasury to ensure its upcoming rules for the GENUIS stablecoin Act do not exceed legal requirements. Decentralized exchange Lighter, which recently experienced a bot glitch that pushed the price of HYPE near $100, has adopted Chainlink as its Oracle partner for real-world asset derivatives.
In traditional markets, the dollar index rally is nearing resistance at the August high of 100.25. A breakout could put further pressure on the crypto. Goldman Sachs said the U.S. Supreme Court appears increasingly likely to rule against the Trump administration’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, even though any reductions would likely apply to smaller trading partners rather than large ones like China. Stay vigilant!
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- November 6, 7 a.m.: Bank of England decision on interest rates. EST. 4%.
- November 6, 2 p.m.: decision by the central bank of Mexico on interest rates. EST. 7.25%.
- November 6, 2:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller will deliver a speech on “Central Banks and the Future of Payments.” Watch live
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- November 6: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.64.
- November 6: Iren (IREN), post-market, $0.15.
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- November 6: OlympusDAO (OHM) will host a community call.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- November 6: Folks Finance (FOLKS) will be listed on Binance, Kraken, MEXC, BingX and others.
- November 6: UnifAI (UAI) will be listed on Binance, Bitrue and others.
- November 6: be listed on Binance.US.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.77% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $102,873.60 (24 hours: +0.73%)
- ETH is down 1.58% at $2,607.45 (24 hours: +1.89%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.33% at 3,261.54 (24h: +1.80%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 5 Basis Points to 3.06%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0071% (7.7854% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.24% at 99.96
- Gold futures are up 0.59% at $4,016.60
- Silver futures are up 0.91% at $48.46
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.34% at 50,883.68
- Hang Seng closed 2.12% higher at 26,485.90
- The FTSE is down 0.28% at 9,749.73
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.03% at 5,670.66
- DJIA closed Wednesday up 0.48% at 47,311.00
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.37% at 6,796.29
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.65% at 23,499.80
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 1.09% at 30,103.48
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 2.32% at 3,054.60
- The 10-year US Treasury yield is down 1.9 bps to 4.138%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures unchanged at 6,830.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures unchanged at 25,759.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average unchanged at 47,432.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 60.57% (unchanged)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03291 (-0.17%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,111 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $41.97
- Total fees: 4.18 BTC / $429,396
- Open Interest on CME Futures: 135,525 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 24.5 oz.
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 6.91%
Technical analysis
- BTC penetrated the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April-October rally.
- The next support lies at $94,237, the 61.8% retracement.
- On the high side, $116,400 is the leb
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Wednesday at $319.30 (+3.9%), -0.23% at $318.58 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $113.03 (+1.6%), +0.38% at $113.46
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.44 (+0.87%), +1.72% to $31.98
- Bull (BLSH): closed at $48.32 (+5.62%), +0.37% at $48.50
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $17.13 (+3.07%), -0.41% at $17.06
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $18.97 (-1.58%), -0.32% at $18.91
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $21.8 (+0.28%), +0.32% at $21.87
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $16.58 (+2.22%), unchanged in pre-market
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $62.18 (+6.4%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $23.24 (+0.48%)
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $255 (+3.24%), -1.13% at $252.11
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $28.74 (+20%), -0.84% at $28.50
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $12.13 (+3.85%), -1.15% to $11.99
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $3.67 (+5%), +1.77% to $3.74
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.85 (+5.11%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: -$137 million
- Cumulative net flows: $60.26 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.34 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$118.5 million
- Cumulative net flows: $13.91 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.61 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
- How much are Bitcoin traders hedging after the recent price drop below $100,000? (CoinDesk): Options interest over $40 billion in Deribit clusters near $110,000 for November and December, while demand increases for $80,000 puts, signaling more downside protection.
- Trump says he wants US to be ‘Bitcoin superpower,’ cites competition from China (CoinDesk): In a speech in Miami, the US president said his orders were ending a “war on crypto”, mentioned that crypto was helping the dollar and warned that China could win if Washington stumbles.
- Another piece of Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Strategy may be coming together (CoinDesk): With the STRC Perpetual Preferred Stock now trading at par, Strategy could open a new avenue for acquiring Bitcoin through its marketplace program.
- Milei defies calls to let Argentina’s peso float freely (Financial Times): President Javier Milei has pledged to continue market reforms, deepen ties with Donald Trump and keep the peso in an expanded band until 2027, despite criticism that he is inflating the exchange rate.
- Franklin Templeton launches tokenized money market fund in Hong Kong (CoinDesk): Franklin’s on-chain U.S. government money market fund, which uses tokenized stocks and invests in short-term Treasury bills, is aimed at professional investors, with a retail version in the works.
