Dogecoin slipped for a second straight session as strong whale distribution and technical weakness overshadowed optimism surrounding Bitwise’s planned launch of the DOGE ETF within 20 days.
News context
Bitwise Asset Management has confirmed that its Dogecoin spot ETF could launch within 20 days under the Section 8(a) automatic approval rule, pending any intervention from the SEC. The move follows last week’s debut of the SOL, LTC and HBAR ETFs on Wall Street and signals an acceleration in institutional product development in the coin segment.
Grayscale also changed its own DOGE ETF spot filing, triggering a similar countdown period. The parallel efforts highlight how regulators’ passive stance under Section 8(a) could accelerate listings even without explicit SEC approval.
Despite the general optimism, DOGE price action became sharply decoupled from the ETF narrative as large holders liquidated their positions to strengthen them. On-chain data recorded over 1 billion DOGE (~$440 million) moved by whale wallets in the last 72 hours, marking the largest distribution week since early October.
Price Action Summary
DOGE fell 2.4% to $0.1634 during the 24-hour session, falling below $0.167 support amid accelerating selling. The token traded within a 6.4% intraday range, setting sequential lower highs in the first 16 hours of trading.
The sharpest decline occurred at 15:00 GMT, when volume surged to 793.4 million tokens, approximately 150% above average, driving DOGE to its session low at $0.1590. Several rebound attempts failed at the $0.1639 resistance, confirming the continued supply overhead.
Late trading brought stabilization as DOGE rebounded from $0.1615 to near $0.1631, with late-breaking activity averaging 6.2 million tokens per minute, slightly above the norm and signaling a measured inflow from institutional participants.
Technical analysis
The session produced a classic breakdown and retest pattern, confirming near-term bearish control while hinting at a possible base formation. Highs descending from validated open resistance near $0.1674, while higher late session lows between $0.1615 and $0.1625 set the first frame for a potential reversal.
Dynamic indicators remain mixed. The RSI has recovered from near-oversold territory (band 38-42) and the flattening of the MACD suggests a slowing of bearish momentum. However, with futures open interest dropping overall by 12% and funding rates turning negative on Binance, speculative appetite remains subdued.
The volume profile supports a transition phase: a massive distribution at the start of the session followed by a measured accumulation at the end of the session. This structure often precedes a short-term consolidation before volatility compresses ahead of a decisive breakout.
What Traders Should Know
Traders are now focused on whether DOGE can defend support at $0.1575 to $0.1615 while ETF-driven sentiment builds. The ETF countdown could act as a catalyst for volatility, but technicals remain fragile until the price closes above $0.1674.
If bulls regain this level, near-term upside targets align between $0.172 and $0.180, coinciding with the supply before the breakout. Conversely, not holding $0.1575 risks exposing the psychological zone of $0.15, where the basic on-chain cost data clusters.
The interplay between ETF headlines and whale flows will likely dictate near-term direction: Sustained outflows from large holders could put an end to any ETF optimism through mid-November.
