Hello, Asia. Here’s what’s making news on the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top news stories during U.S. business hours and insight into market movements and analysis. For a detailed look at US markets, check out CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Bitcoin is sliding into weaker market structure, as the steady supply that supported prices earlier in the year gives way to diminishing demand and defensive positioning.
In a recent note, CryptoQuant wrote that the main demand wave of the cycle had already passed, with ETF accumulation slowing, Treasury company buying evaporating, and Strategy buying falling to their lowest levels of the year.
According to CryptoQuant, this does not imply an imminent collapse, but it does mean that upside potential is increasingly limited, with rallies likely to stall below the 365-day moving average until a new wave of demand emerges.
Polymarket traders are positioning around this weakness, assigning the highest probability to a move towards 85,000 and placing virtually no weight on bullish scenarios.
Glassnode adds that short-term holders are realizing losses at their fastest rate since the FTX period, ETF flows remain negative, and derivatives markets have gone into full risk aversion mode, with options traders loading up on puts and implied volatility increasing.
In this context, Glassnode considers the active investor’s cost basis near $88,600 as the next critical test of the market.
A sustained move below this level would result in losses for recent active investors for the first time this cycle and signal that bearish momentum is taking control. The next support is at the true market average, around $82,000, which Glassnode describes as the point where a slight bearish phase could give way to a bear market structure similar to that of 2022 and 2023.
The coming weeks will show whether buyers can reassert their position or whether support gives way and the downturn becomes more entrenched.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin is trading around $92,000 after briefly slipping below $90,000 earlier in the week, leaving the market jittery as it searches for support.
ETFs: Ether is trading around $3,038, down slightly on the day as it continues to follow Bitcoin’s broader defensive tone.
Gold: Gold is trading near $4,067 after hitting an intraday high of $4,132 as risk aversion pervades markets.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose Thursday as a strong earnings report from Nvidia boosted chip stocks, sending the Nikkei 225 up 3.7%.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- Bill Hill, co-founder of Samourai Wallet, sentenced to 4 years in prison for transferring money without a license (CoinDesk)
- New Hampshire Unveils $100 Million Bitcoin-Backed Municipal Bond (Decrypt)
- Bullish Swings to Profit in Q3 After Adding Options, US Spot Trading (CoinDesk)
