Bitcoin is exhibiting one of the deepest momentum breaks of the cycle, with several on-chain indicators now printing signals last seen during the industry’s most violent devastations.
Glassnode data shows that realized losses have reached levels comparable to the November 2022 capitulation around the collapse of FTX. The rise is almost entirely driven by short-term holders, the colloquial term for wallets purchased in the past 90 days, which are being unwound on a large scale as BTC extends its fall below the 200-day moving average.
The dominance of short-term realized losses is typical of market stress, but their scale this week is remarkable. The current cluster is the largest since the start of 2023, and one of the few in the last five years to reach a daily rate of $600 million to $1 billion.
Market structure indicators tell a similar story. Independent analyst MEKhoko noted that BTC is now trading more than 3.5 standard deviations below its 200-day moving average.
This type of displacement has only occurred three times in the past decade: in November 2018, during the March 2020 pandemic crisis, and in June 2022 during the Three Arrows Capital/Luna crisis.
btcusd is beyond 3.5 standard deviations from its 200dMA
other occasions:
November 2018
March 2020
June 2022– mekhoko (@MEKhoko) November 20, 2025
This week’s pullback fits the same pattern of behavior: a sharp expansion in cash sales, a collapse in financing rates, and a measurable withdrawal of marginal buyers who previously relied on momentum.
With BTC now deeply stretched below trend, short-term holders gone, and sentiment plunged into extreme fear, market positioning is approaching levels historically associated with short-term lows.
But without a clear macroeconomic catalyst, traders warn that volatility around these levels will likely remain high.
