Technical reversal signals are emerging amid extreme oversold following an aggressive institutional distribution wave.
News context
• Whale wallets dumped nearly 200 million XRP (~$400 million) in 48 hours, triggering significant supply pressure.
• Market-wide risk aversion intensified as Bitcoin fell below $90,000, sending altcoins into greater volatility.
• Bitwise’s new XRP ETF saw first-day volume of $25.7 million and assets under management of $107.6 million, signaling strong institutional demand.
• Sentiment among the majors remains fragile, with the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies continuing to drift due to strong capital outflows.
Price Action Summary
• XRP fell from $1.96 to $1.91, marking its lowest close in three sessions.
• Volume climbed 67% above average to 182.1 million, confirming institutional sales.
• A descending channel dominated the session with intraday volatility of 5.1%
• The capitulation floor formed at $1.895, followed by a 0.5% reversal in late trading.
• Last hour volume jumped to 2.76 million, breaking the trend of declining activity.
Technical analysis
XRP’s session reflected a classic distribution-driven decline, followed by early-stage reversal signals. Whale selling created sustained downward pressure as major holders unloaded nearly 200 million tokens, surpassing the $1.96 resistance band and pushing XRP into a descending channel that persisted for most of the session.
Support between $1.90 and $1.91 has become the main battleground. The psychological level attracted aggressive buying after a capitulation event at $1.895, where institutional inflows reversed the intraday trend. Momentum indicators, including the RSI and short-term stochastic, showed deep oversold conditions, creating the first bullish divergence since last week’s major breakdown.
The strong volume spike of 2.76 million during the rebound suggests early accumulation behavior, contradicting the previous several-hour decline in participation. The macroeconomic structure nevertheless remains fragile. Bulls need to force a clear break above $1.96 to invalidate the descending channel and attempt a trend reversal. Failure to defend $1.90 would expose the chart to a rapid extension towards $1.82, then $1.73.
What traders should watch out for
• $1.90 remains the limit in the sand. A close below sets the stage for deep October liquidity pockets
• Reclaiming $1.96 is key to neutralizing the descending channel and restoring near-term bullish momentum.
• ETF flows, particularly the trajectory of Bitwise’s assets under management, can provide upside catalysts if volume accelerates.
• Divergence and oversold signals favor short-term rebound attempts, but whale distribution remains the dominant risk.
• Market-wide fear levels remain high; XRP will continue to overreact to Bitcoin volatility
