By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
The new week does not start on the most cheerful note. Bitcoin is already pulling back from its weekend rebound, falling to $86,000 from around $88,000. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is also feeling the chill, sliding to 2,758 points from its weekend high of 2,816.
BTC has been on a tough four-week losing streak, marked by institutional capitulation. What’s next? Such sell-offs usually shake investor confidence, which does not rebound overnight. This makes a quick return to $100,000 or more by the end of the year quite unlikely.
You can determine the mood from analyst comments, which mostly eschew clear directional views.
“In the short term, a rebound is very likely, but if we fall again and lose the $80,000 level, the probability of facing a much more difficult period becomes significantly higher,” CryptoQuant said in an article on X.
A rebound cannot be ruled out as a December cut in US interest rates has returned to the table, with traders now assigning a 75% chance of a cut following dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials late last week. Those chances could increase if this week’s U.S. data – producer price index, retail sales, GDP and PCE – signal cooling inflation and slowing growth.
“For crypto, delta macro is simple: Easing releases would reduce real returns and likely attract marginal buyers again; persistent inflation or hawkish commentary would keep risk asset liquidity constrained. Expect headline-induced volatility around these releases,” Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in an email.
That said, here’s a quick reminder to those expecting Fed-induced booms like in 2020-2021. The game has changed. As financial strategist Russell Napier put it, the post-Covid world is characterized by “fiscal dominance/state capitalism,” in which governments, not central banks, lead the charge to reduce debt-to-GDP ratios.
In this new configuration, governments exploit their control over commercial banks and their political tools to direct liquidity towards growth-driving economic activities that “inflate” debt. This makes assets with budget spending and an attractive store of value some of the best investments around.
This is a sea change from the pre-Covid era of Fed dominance, where new money flowed first to asset managers, sparking rallies in every corner of the financial markets: the classic Cantillon effect that I first explained in 2019!
Investors who are pinning their hopes solely on the Fed’s stimulus measures for the markets may want to rethink their strategy. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- November 24: Monad public mainnet will launch with the native token MON.
- November 24: Two new crypto spot ETFs – Grayscale Dogecoin Trust ETF (GDOG) and Grayscale XRP Trust ETF (GXRP) – are expected to go live on NYSE Arca.
- Macro
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and governance calls
- Unlocks
- to unlock 4% of its circulating supply worth $10.84 million.
- to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $6.25 million.
- Token Launches
- Monad (MON) to list on Kraken, Gate, Bitrue and Indoax.
- Sparkle (SSS) to list on Gate.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.95% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $86,003.98 (24 hours: -0.3%)
- ETH is up 1.14% at $2,799.37 (24 hours: -0.55%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 2% at 2,753.16 (24 hours: +0.12%)
- Ether CESR composite staking rate is down 25 basis points to 2.81%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0034% (3.7777% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY was little changed at 100.09
- Gold futures are down 0.30% at $4,067.20
- Silver futures are down 0.22% at $49.81
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 2.40% at 48,625.88
- Hang Seng closed 1.97% higher at 25,716.50
- FTSE is unchanged at 9,543.30
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,510.71
- DJIA closed Friday up 1.08% at 46,245.41
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.98% at 6,602.99
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.88% at 22,273.08
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.85% at 30,160.65
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.24% at 3,036.63
- The 10-year US Treasury yield is down 1.3 bps to 4.05%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.25% at 6,636.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.47% at 24,419.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average unchanged at 46,311.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.08% (-0.31%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03252 (0.77%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,039 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $35.59
- Total fees: 2.32 BTC / $200,985
- Open Interest on CME Futures: 131,785 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 21.2 ounces.
- Market capitalization BTC vs gold: 5.77%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows daily fluctuations in the price of Tether gold, denominated in USDT.
- The XAUT token has seen a triangular consolidation over the past five weeks, marking a pause in the broader uptrend.
- The next move depends on the direction in which the triangle consolidation resolves. A breakout higher would signify the resumption of a broader rally, while a breakout lower would signal a change in trend from bullish to bearish.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN) closed Friday at $240.41, (+0.96%), +2.16% at $245.60 in pre-market trading
- Circle Internet (CRCL) closed at $71.33, (+6.53%), +0.71% to $71.84
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY) closed down $23.42 (-2.37%), +2.95% to $24.11
- MARA Holdings (MARA) closed down $10.07 (-1.76%), +1.39% to $10.21
- Riot Platforms (RIOT) closed at $12.71 (-0.67%), +2.2% to $12.99
- Core Scientific (CORZ) closed at $14.73 (-2.77%), +1.83% to $15
- CleanSpark (CLSK) closed down $9.73 (-2.84%), +5.14% to $10.23
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) closed at $38.04 (-1.91%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD) closed at $14.65, (+3.03%)
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $170.50 (-3.74%), -5.41% at $167.55, +1.07% at $172.32
- Semler Scientific (SMLR) closed at $19.03, (+3.36%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.52 (+2.37%), +1.58% to $9.67
- Upexi Inc (UPXI) closed at $2.52, (+2.43%), +3.17% to $2.60
- Lite Strategy (LITS) closed at $1.70 (+0.59%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: $238.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $57.62 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.31 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $55.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.65 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.13 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
