Bitcoin traders are increasingly taking defensive positions, preparing for a potential price decline below $80,000 in the new year.
“Skew’s sharp decline shows traders are stacking their puts, especially leading up to the Dec. 26 expiration where open interest was focused on the $84,000 and $80,000 strike prices,” Nick Forster, co-founder of Derive, said in a market note.
“This positioning implies a significant probability that BTC will be below $80,000 to start 2026,” he added.
At the time of writing, BTC changed hands at nearly $87,000, representing a 30% drop from the all-time high of over $126,000 reached on October 8, according to CoinDesk data.
Forster said the downtrend may not be over and market participants are anticipating a volatile December. “I don’t believe the bottom has been reached. Short-term volatility is now above BTC’s long-term volatility, signaling that the market is expecting outsized swings heading into the new year,” Forster said.
