Bitcoin’s decline over the past three months has reignited a familiar line of commentary about the arrival of a crypto winter. The price is down about 18% over the period, and some commentators have pointed to the weakness in crypto stocks as evidence of the market as a whole collapsing.
One of the sharpest moves came from American Bitcoin Corp., which plunged about 40% on Tuesday thanks to unusually high volume. The decline briefly spread to Hut 8, which owns a majority stake in the company. Other Trump-linked digital assets also fell sharply, fueling a broader narrative that the sector is headed for another prolonged downturn.
Data on market structure, however, do not support this view.
Bitcoin has attracted more than $732 billion in net new capital since the 2022 cycle low, according to a new report from Glassnode and Fasanara Digital.
The report notes that this single cycle generated more inflows than all previous Bitcoin cycles combined and pushed the realized cap to around $1.1 billion, while the spot price fell from $16,000 to around $126,000 at the peak. Realized cap is a measure of true capital invested and is usually one of the first indicators to contract during real-world winters. This is not the case.
Volatility tells a similar story.
The report shows that BTC’s one-year realized volatility fell from 84% to around 43%, a decline associated with greater liquidity, greater participation in ETFs, and more cash-margined derivatives.
Winters begin when volatility increases and liquidity evaporates, not when volatility is cut in half. What is historically true is that this cycle is marked by the growing popularity of call crush strategies in BTC and IBIT options. These strategies have dampened volatility during this cycle, invalidating previous spot-vol relationships.
The report claims that ETF activity also contradicts the idea of a cycle top. The report shows that spot ETFs hold approximately 1.36 million BTC, or approximately 6.9% of the circulating supply, and have contributed approximately 5.2% of net inflows since their launch. ETF flows tend to go negative and stay that way during actual winters, especially when long-term holders reduce their exposure at the same time. None of these conditions are present today.
Miner performance sector-wide is also deviating from winter trends. The CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI) is up more than 35% during the same three-month period in which BTC is down. In previous winters, miners were among the first to collapse as the price of hash deteriorated. The current divergence shows that miner weakness is not widespread and that company-specific issues, such as the Bitcoin sell-off in the United States, are not representative of the sector.
The pullback itself matches historical mid-cycle behavior rather than a complete reversal, writes Glassnode.
Bitcoin saw similar declines in 2017, 2020, and 2023 during periods of deleveraging or macroeconomic tightening before continuing to rise. The October 2025 deleveraging event cited in the Glassnode and Fasanara report fits this trend. Open interest fell sharply within hours as spot liquidity absorbed billions of dollars in forced selling. Events like this tend to reset positioning, not end cycles.
Bitcoin also remains much closer to its annual high, near $124,000, than to its annual low, around $76,000. During each past winter, the market moved toward the lower end of the range and stayed there as realized losses piled up and long-term holders changed their behavior. The current setup does not resemble this environment.
The short-term volatility of individual stocks may grab headlines, but the structural indicators that define market cycles tell a different story.
Glassnote highlights that the record realized cap, lower volatility and continued demand for ETFs point to consolidation after a historic inflow cycle.
To conclude, the current market dynamics are not something one would see at the start of a crypto winter.
