Dogecoin broke through key resistance with its highest volume in weeks, signaling retail-led momentum even as whale activity fell to its lowest level in several months.
News context
- Dogecoin’s latest move came against a backdrop of small but steady ETF participation.
- The two newly launched spot Dogecoin ETFs in the United States – Grayscale’s GDOG and Bitwise’s BWOW – saw $177,250 in net inflows on December 3, bringing cumulative inflows since launch to $2.85 million, according to SoSoValue data.
- While not explosive, the flows indicate early adoption by traditional investors as regulated DOGE products begin to gain a foothold. The broader memecoin market remained subdued, but continued ETF demand provided a small but notable tailwind as DOGE attempted to regain key technical levels.
Technical analysis
- DOGE’s structure notably strengthened as price confirmed an ascending channel built on three higher lows at $0.1469, $0.1488, and $0.1512. This trend reflects sustained accumulation, with volume rising sharply on each upswing and contracting on pullbacks – the exact behavior traders look for when differentiating real trend changes from noise.
- The break above $0.1505 marked the first breakout of resistance since late November. Tuesday’s increase in volumes – triple the daily average – reinforced the legitimacy of this decision.
- Despite the decline in whale involvement, the chart shows constructive dynamics: upward sloping support, increasing amplitude with each breakout attempt, and clear reactions to intraday declines.
- Importantly, DOGE maintains its structural integrity above the $0.1470 support band. This zone now acts as a technical pivot for continuation and defines the lower limit of the ascending channel.
- On a longer timeframe, the $0.138 region remains the key structural bottom, aligned with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the 200-week moving average – levels that continue to attract long-term buyers.
- DOGE opened with a steady accumulation before breaking resistance at $0.1505. The rally accelerated around 14:00 GMT as peak volume reached 874.7 million tokens. Price briefly returned to $0.1513 before buyers regained control, confirming new support.
- Intraday action showed clear bid absorption at each higher low, while the upper boundary of the channel guided rallies towards the $0.1530 region. The session closed in the upper half of the day’s range, signaling that bulls maintained their dominance.
• $0.1470 is now the key support level; maintaining it preserves the break structure
• The immediate upside target lies at $0.1530, with $0.1580 to $0.1600 as the next resistance band.
• Confirmation of volumes remains essential — a return below average could slow down the continuation
• Retail-driven rebounds can accelerate quickly but also fade without institutional strengthening
• A loss of $0.1470 risks a deeper pullback towards $0.1430 and, in extreme cases, macro support at $0.138.
What do the techniques suggest for DOGE?
- The market structure is showing the first signs of a change in dynamics, supported by mixed but improving indicators. Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a new “Buy” signal on Dogecoin’s weekly chart using the TD Sequential Indicator – a tool designed to identify trend exhaustion and potential reversal points.
- Historically, TD sequential “Buy” signals on DOGE have preceded sharp rebounds over several weeks, making the appearance of a new signal notable as the coin tests the upper boundary of its ascending channel.
- However, not all indicators line up clearly. TradingView’s Bull Bear Power tool – which measures the balance between bullish and bearish pressure – issued a sell signal, suggesting that sellers retain influence during intraday swings.
- In contrast, the MACD indicator, which tracks momentum through the convergence and divergence of moving averages, turned bullish when the MACD line broke above its signal line, generally interpreted as bullish momentum.
- Together, the mixed indicator profile implies that DOGE is in the early stages of a potential trend transition, where bullish momentum is emerging but not yet dominant.
- Traders are awaiting confirmation through sustained closes above resistance and rising volume, both of which would validate the TD Sequential signal and negate short-term bearish readings.
