Glassnode’s latest weekly report highlights the similarities between current market conditions and the early stages of the 2022 bear market, also known as crypto winter.
The first indicator suggesting stress is the high risk of capitulation by major buyers. Glassnode’s supply quantile cost basis, which tracks the supply cost basis held by major buyers, shows that since mid-November, the spot price has fallen below the 0.75 quantile and is trading near $96,100. This puts over 25% of the BTC supply underwater. A similar breakout below the 0.75 quantile marked the start of the 2022 bear market.
At the same time, the total supply loss on a 7-day simple moving average has now reached 7.1 million bitcoins, the upper end of the 5-7 million range seen in early 2022.
Despite these pressures, capital continues to flow into Bitcoin based on a realized net change in the cap, which stands at nearly $8.69 billion per month. This amount, however, remains well below the summer peak of $64.3 billion per month, according to Glassnode.
Off-chain trends show further softening from investors. Demand for ETFs continues to weaken, with IBIT recording a sixth consecutive week of outflows, its longest negative streak since its launch in January 2024. Outflows now total more than $2.7 billion in redemptions over the past five weeks.
Spot market activity is also deteriorating. Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has reversed, with Binance’s CVD trending consistently negative, Glassnode observes. Meanwhile, the Coinbase premium appears to be renewed again, having recently turned positive after a long period in the red.
Data on derivatives reinforces the decline in risk appetite. Open interest fell from November to December, suggesting a lower propensity to take risks, particularly after the October 10 liquidation flash crash. Perpetual funding rates are mostly neutral with brief periods of negative results, and the funding premium has cooled significantly, suggesting a more balanced and less speculative environment.
Glassnode also notes that traders are not positioning for a strong breakout before next week’s FOMC meeting. The company sees a cautious attitude in the options market, where gains are sold rather than sought. Earlier in the week, put buying dominated as bitcoin neared $80,000. As prices subsequently stabilized, flows shifted to buying activity as investor fears eased.
