Bitcoin The recent slide may seem worrying, but K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde says December could mark a turning point for the cryptocurrency. After its biggest correction since the last bear market, the company sees more evidence of a rebound than another collapse.
BTC has been weighed down by a wave of selling, largely structural. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which were the biggest buyers in the market, became net sellers in November. CME futures activity fell to its lowest level in several years, signaling TradFi’s hesitation. The price of Bitcoin, meanwhile, has underperformed stocks, reaching its lowest level against the Nasdaq since late 2024.
But K33 sees a market that overreacts to distant threats while missing near-term strength signals. “The case for a significant increase is far more plausible than a repeat of an 80% decline,” the company wrote in its December outlook.
They highlight several factors. First, bitcoin is trading near historic high support levels – between $70,000 and $80,000 – while broader futures positioning remains cautious and not overheated. Perpetual markets exhibit low leverage and no major liquidations have occurred despite price pressure.
Long-term fears, such as the risks of quantum computing, potential bitcoin sales by Strategy (MSTR), or the instability of Tether, may seem dire, but are unlikely to manifest themselves anytime soon. K33 notes that each of these threats will be years away from posing a real risk and should not be driving the current price movements.
Instead, the company argues, the focus should be on what lies ahead in the near term. With favorable policy changes on the horizon, including possible 401(k) access to crypto and a pro-crypto shift at the Federal Reserve, K33 sees structural construction to the upside. According to them, the current valuation of Bitcoin reflects fear more than fundamentals.
For now, the market remains cautious. But K33’s outlook suggests December could offer a window for bold positioning.
