Institutional flows surged more than 50% above trend on Wednesday as XRP failed to break through the $2.09 to $2.10 ceiling again. Sellers knocked the token off resistance and forced a sharp move back into the psychological $2.00 plateau, leaving the broader structure stuck in a multi-week squeeze while ETF inflows quietly tighten supply below.
What you need to know
- XRP fell from $2.09 to $2.00, losing 4.3% on the session and underperforming the broader crypto market by around 1%.
- The rejection was decisive: a spike in volume of 172.8 million (205% above the daily average) hit as XRP hit $2.08, turning the entire move into a failed breakout. The sell-off did not come from retailer panic.
- Volume during the session was 54% above the 7-day average – a classic institutional distribution above resistance rather than emotional dumping.
- Exchange balances have fallen from 3.95 billion to 2.6 billion tokens over the past 60 days, squeezing supply even as the spot price failed to contain the attempted breakout. This divergence creates an increasingly asymmetrical structure as XRP trades in an increasingly tight triangle over several months.
News context
- US spot XRP ETFs generated over $170 million in weekly inflows, marking another week with no outflows.
- Heavy spot selling continues to reach the $2.09-$2.10 range, where XRP has now failed multiple times.
- Market makers reported increasing pressure on distribution ahead of yesterday’s move, with significant bids hovering above $2.10.
- Exchange supply continues to decline, falling to 2.6 billion tokens, reinforcing the long-term supply squeeze.
- Despite the ETF’s support, XRP lagged the broader crypto, with CD5 falling 3.1% on the day, suggesting the move was token-specific rather than macroeconomic.
Price Action Summary
XRP fell 4.3% from $2.09 to $2.00
• Intraday range: 5.4% as rejection of resistance triggers high volatility unwind
• Volume: peak of 172.8 million at 19:00 UTC (up 205% above daily average)
• Multiple rejections between $2.08 and $2.10 created a hard cap.
• Stabilization at the end of the session formed higher lows, near $1.999 to $2.005.
• Relative performance: lags broader crypto by about 1%
Technical analysis
- Support: $2.00 Psychological Shelf. Below that is a weak area at $1.95, aligned with previous demand clusters.
- Resistance: $2.09 to $2.10 is the dominant wall – the session has created a clear supply shelf here. Any close above $2.10 makes the entire structure bullish in the short term.
- Volume structure: 54% above weekly averages = institutional flows, no noise. The peak of 172.8 million exactly at the time of the failed breakout confirms that aggressive sellers are defending the level.
- Pattern: Triangle squeeze tightens over several months as FX supply declines. The price remains average; no escapes or failures confirmed.
- Momentum has been skewed lower in the short term after a clear rejection. Bounce attempts capped below $2.08 on declining volume equate to weak follow through.
What traders are watching.
- Can $2.00 survive a second test? A sharp breakout reveals a rapid move towards $1.95.
- ETF inflows remain the primary offset to spot weakness – any downturn removes the floor.
- A breakout requires multiple hourly closes above $2.10 with sustained volume >100 million.
- Compression now extremely tight – the next movement should be greater than the last.
- The fall in the exchange balance is the wild card: lower supply = faster fluctuations once the direction is confirmed
