Barclays expects a more tepid year for crypto in 2026, with trading volumes trending downward and investor enthusiasm waning. In a wide-ranging year-end report released Friday, the bank flagged a challenging backdrop for digital asset exchanges like Coinbase (COIN), citing unclear catalysts for renewed activity and a slow start to token adoption efforts.
Retail exchanges, which have benefited from growing trading interest in previous years, are now facing a more gloomy environment. Barclays analysts noted that trading volume in spot markets – key revenue drivers for companies like Coinbase and Robinhood (HOOD) – has cooled sharply. Without a clear spark to revive demand, volumes could remain low.
“Spot crypto trading volumes […] “It appears that the trend is downward in FY26, and we do not know what could reverse this trend,” the analysts wrote.
Cryptocurrency markets tend to evolve based on major events: political announcements, product launches or political changes. Barclays pointed to past surges in activity, like inflows into Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in March 2024 or the pro-crypto presidential victory in November as key drivers of near-term spikes. But in the absence of such events, the bank considers that structural growth is lacking.
One area that could boost the market is regulation. Barclays highlighted the anticipation of the CLARITY Act, legislation that would help define the line between digital commodities and securities and clarify which US agency – the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the smaller Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) – regulates which assets. While not a guaranteed market driver, the bill could ease operational uncertainty for crypto companies and investors. If adopted, it could open the door to clearer product launches, particularly in tokenized assets.
Coinbase remains a focal point in Barclays’ analysis. As the company expands into derivatives and tokenized stock trading, the bank faces hurdles related to declining spot volumes and rising operating costs.
“COIN has a number [of] growth initiatives as well as recent acquisitions that could begin to have more impact,” the report said. Nonetheless, analysts revised their price target for the stock to $291, citing a more cautious earnings outlook.
Tokenization continues to attract attention from both crypto-native and traditional financial companies. BlackRock (BLK), Robinhood (HOOD) and others have tested products in this area. But Barclays warns that this trend is still in its early stages and is unlikely to have a significant impact on profits in 2026.
At the same time, the US political environment has become more favorable to digital assets following the recent elections. However, Barclays believes that much of this optimism is already priced into the market. Any legislative movement, like the CLARITY Act, would have to pass through the Senate and survive possible legal challenges before having any practical impact.
In summary, 2026 could be a year of transition for cryptocurrencies. With retail activity declining and no immediate tailwind, companies are focusing on long-term bets like token financing and improving compliance. It remains unclear whether these investments will bear fruit next year or later.
