Hello, Asia. Here’s what’s making news on the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top news stories during U.S. business hours and insight into market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see Crypto Daybook Americas from CoinDesk.
With just two weeks left in the year and many offices in Hong Kong operating with skeleton staff following Friday’s Asian session, as the Christmas holiday begins, crypto markets are shifting from momentum to accounting. One of the harshest end-of-year verdicts comes from Polymarket, where traders now assign just a 2% chance that Bitcoin ETFs will break last year’s inflow record in 2025.
The bet is based on a simple arithmetic problem. Bitcoin ETFs generated $33.6 billion in net inflows in 2024. This year’s total as of Dec. 15 U.S. time is closer to $22.5 billion, according to SoSoValue, leaving a gap of about $11 billion with just a few days of significant trading.
Yet last week, ETF inflows resumed even as prices fell and altcoins lagged, suggesting that while the $33.6 billion target may be out of reach, the structural role of ETFs in absorbing risk continues to strengthen as the year ends.
Data from Glassnode shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows have returned to positive territory, even as prices retreated from $94,000, where they were trading yesterday, and spot market conditions weakened, with net inflows rebounding to around $290 million in the week following previous outflows.
At the same time, Glassnode writes that ETF trading volumes have declined, suggesting less speculative churn and more allocation-oriented positioning. This trend helps explain why Bitcoin has held up better than the CoinDesk 20, a broad index, with ETFs increasingly acting as a stabilizing channel when risk comes from higher beta assets rather than as a vehicle solely for seeking upside.
The $11 billion gap from last year’s record $33.6 billion reflects how the ETF story has changed, not that it has stalled.
Unlike launch year 2024, which was driven by pent-up demand and one-off allocations, 2025 was shaped by turnover, fee migration, and volatility-driven rebalancing.
The math may already be settled, but beating a benchmark before the end of the year isn’t as important. This is the use case: ETFs no longer amplify cryptocurrency prices, as they did when they launched in 2024.
Instead, they increasingly act as a stabilizing layer in the market, absorbing sell orders during pullbacks rather than amplifying price swings. This is a sign of a mature market infrastructure.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin has spent the past week consolidating after a near $94,000 failure, falling back toward the $87,000 to $88,000 range while holding up better than the broader crypto market.
ETFs: Ether underperformed over the past week, sliding towards the $2,950-$3,000 range as selling pressure from higher beta assets intensified and the rotation favored Bitcoin.
Gold: Gold climbed above $4,300 after the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing survey unexpectedly fell into contraction in December, boosting demand for safe-haven assets as volatility in the U.S. manufacturing sector resurfaces.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell Tuesday, tracking Wall Street’s decline as investors pulled out of U.S. AI trading, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.14% and the Topix down 1.05%.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- Senate Postpones Crypto Market Structure Bill Until Next Year (CoinDesk)
- Bitcoin sees lowest level of active addresses in a year, raising new concerns about demand for block space (The Block)
