Revised forecast shows slowing export growth, rising imports and fiscal challenges
The International Monetary Fund projects that Pakistan’s gross domestic product could reach 193.63 trillion rupees by 2030, while exports are expected to reach $46 billion, significantly below the government’s target of $60 billion. For the next financial year, Pakistan’s total exports are estimated at $36.46 billion, with exports expected to reach $40 billion in 2028 and around $43 billion in 2029.
The IMF released these revised projections as part of changes to Pakistan’s key economic indicators framework. Sources say that according to IMF estimates, Pakistan’s GDP size will increase by around Rs 68,000 billion cumulatively between FY 2026 and 2030. However, the GDP target of Rs 129,517 billion set for the current financial year is unlikely to be achieved with GDP now expected to be around Rs 126,000 billion.
On tax revenue, the IMF noted that the Federal Board of Revenue is unlikely to achieve a tax-to-GDP ratio of 15%, even by 2030. The ratio is projected at 11.2% in the next financial year and may decline to 11.1% between 2028 and 2030. The FBR is expected to collect Rs 13,979 billion in taxes this financial year, which is expected to reach approximately 21.5 trillion rupees by 2030. 2030, while non-tax revenue is projected at 3.681 billion rupees this year and could reach 3.861 billion rupees by 2030.
The IMF report also addresses the fiscal deficit, projecting a gradual decline from 5.1 percent of GDP in the current fiscal year to 3.1 percent by 2030. To cover the deficit, Pakistan will need about Rs 28 trillion in total financing between 2026 and 2030, with about Rs 2.3 trillion expected from external sources.
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As for public debt, the IMF has warned that the outstanding debt could reach 117,441 billion rupees by 2030, although the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to gradually decline from 72% this year to 60.7% by 2030. Interest payments are expected to increase, reaching 8,251 billion rupees in the next financial year, 8,214 billion rupees in 2028, 8,796 billion rupees in 2028. 2029, and Rs9,380 billion by 2030.
The IMF also warned that although the government aims to increase the tax-to-GDP ratio to 13%, current projections suggest that this target is unlikely to be achieved by 2030.
In terms of trade, the IMF forecast contrasts with government claims, estimating an export deficit of $13.79 billion. Pakistan’s exports are now expected to reach $46 billion by 2030, up from the previously targeted $60 billion. Exports are expected to reach $36.46 billion in the next fiscal year, $40 billion in 2028 and $43 billion in 2029.
Imports are expected to increase significantly. The IMF forecasts $64 billion in imports this fiscal year, $66.86 billion in 2027, $72.90 billion in 2028, $77 billion in 2029 and $82.81 billion by 2030, representing an increase of $18.70 billion in total imports by 2030.
Sources noted that the Federal Government initially set a target of achieving $60 billion in exports in three years, which was later extended to five years to achieve the target of $60 billion.
