Robinhood (HOOD) could see more revenue from prediction markets than Coinbase (COIN) as users deploy new money rather than selling existing holdings, according to a survey from Japanese investment bank Mizuho (MFG).
“We expect a larger revenue benefit for HOOD compared to COIN given that the survey showed that users of this platform are more likely to fund their prediction markets portfolio with new money,” analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins wrote in Tuesday’s report.
Robinhood and Coinbase users are much more likely than other investors to trade on prediction markets, with activity geared toward economic and political events, analysts found. The bank raised its revenue forecast for Robinhood but cut its Coinbase price target due to concerns that prediction market activity could cannibalize crypto trading.
Mizuho surveyed more than 230 Robinhood and Coinbase users and found that they are about nine times more likely to participate in prediction markets than respondents who don’t use either app. Economic (81%) and political (49%) events are the most popular themes among those surveyed, followed closely by sport (47%), the bank said.
According to the report, how users plan to fund these transactions is the point of divergence between the two platforms. About 50% of people surveyed by Robinhood said they planned to use new money to trade prediction markets, while selling traditional wallets or cryptocurrencies was much lower (12% and 10%, respectively).
In contrast, Coinbase users most often cited selling crypto (37%) and adding new funds (37%) as their primary sources of funds, raising what analysts described as a risk that prediction markets could cannibalize existing revenue from crypto trading.
This funding mix leads to a larger mid-term revenue boost for Robinhood than for Coinbase, analysts said, even though COIN users expect to allocate a slightly higher share of their portfolio to prediction markets in about a year (15% versus 13% for HOOD).
With Robinhood’s prediction market business on track to hit a run rate of around $300 million in the fourth quarter and some 2.5 billion contracts in October, Mizuho said it was increasing its 2026-2027 revenue estimates for the company by 6% to 7%. The bank maintained its outperform on the stock and its price target of $172.
Coinbase is expected to launch a predictive market product on Wednesday, which Mizuho sees as a positive step but not yet enough to change its numbers.
The bank said it did not incorporate any prediction market upside potential into its Coinbase model, due to uncertainty surrounding the design and economics of the final product, as well as the potential for selling crypto to fund prediction trades. Mizuho also cited weaker-than-expected Q4 trends and a decline in bitcoin. price by lowering its Coinbase price target from $320 to $280 and reiterated its neutral rating on the stock.
Robinhood was up 2.6% in early trading, at $122.53. Coinbase was up 2%, trading at $257.63.
Learn more: Prediction Markets Are Quietly Transforming into a New Asset Class, Citizens Say
