Jurien Timmer, director of Global Macro at Fidelity and long Bitcoin bull, has become one of the latest financial strategists to become more bearish on Bitcoin. citing the asset’s four-year cycle.
Bitcoin has historically followed a repeatable pattern, and from an analog and temporal perspective, the current cycle appears to align closely with previous ones, Timmer asserts.
October’s all-time high, near $125,000, reached after about 145 months of cumulative rallying, fits well into this framework. Bitcoin bear markets, often called winters, typically last about a year, Timmer explains. As a result, he sees 2026 as a potential “gap year” for Bitcoin after the conclusion of the latest halving cycle.
“While I remain a secular bull on bitcoin, my concern is that bitcoin may well have ended another four-year halving cycle, both in terms of price and time,” Timmer wrote on X.
“If we visually line up all the bull markets, we can see that October’s high of $125,000 after 145 months of rallying matches up pretty well with what one would expect. Bitcoin’s winters lasted about a year, so I have a feeling 2026 could be a year off for Bitcoin. Support lies between $65,000 and $75,000.”
Timmer also highlights gold’s strong performance in 2025, comparing it to bitcoin’s negative year, and does not expect a short-term mean reversion between the two assets.
Gold is firmly in a bull market, up about 65% year to date, outperforming global money supply growth, Timmer noted. He adds that during the recent correction, gold held on to most of its gains, which he considers characteristic behavior of a bull market.
