Experts say so-called hybrid system will further consolidate control of power in the new year
ISLAMABAD:
Pakistan enters 2026 with its biggest political question still unanswered: what will happen to PTI founder Imran Khan.
His supporters hoped for relief in 2025, when Donald Trump returned to the White House. However, these hopes proved short-lived, as Trump never mentioned Imran, let alone pressured the government or powers that be for his release.
Instead, analysts believe that 2025 will be the year in which the current political regime, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, further consolidates its position. According to them, this trend is expected to continue until 2026.
Ahmad Bilal Mehboob, chairman of PILDAT, believes that Pakistan’s “hybrid system” will strengthen in 2026. He told The Express PK Press Club that the hybrid model of governance has become more formalized and is expected to consolidate further in the coming year.
“This trend, visible over the past year through changes in the judicial and political landscape, is unlikely to be temporary and portends increased consolidation of a security-focused governance model,” he added.
The establishment-backed government introduced several constitutional amendments in 2025 that brought about major structural changes in governance and centers of power.
Senior political analyst Zaigham Khan, meanwhile, described 2025 as a “lucky year” for the government, largely thanks to favorable international developments.
He said regional events – particularly the actions of India under Modi and Israel under Netanyahu – have made Pakistan increasingly important in terms of security, particularly for the Arab world.
This shift, he said, has positioned Pakistan as an internet security provider and emerging middle power.
“The main challenge for 2026 will be to convert these geostrategic gains into tangible economic benefits,” he said.
However, Haris Khalique, secretary general of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, warned that an increased concentration of power in 2026 could seriously undermine civil liberties.
“As we enter 2026, democratic backsliding continues, while good governance, the rule of law and the protection of fundamental rights remain under pressure.
“Nothing will change overnight, but the powers that be must realize that excessive internal control and suppression of dissent rarely benefits a state or society,” he told The Express PK Press Club.
Khalique highlighted that 44.7 percent of Pakistan’s population lives below the poverty line, while 88 percent earn less than the living wage.
He argued that security, governance and development policies require major restructuring, adding that territorial security cannot be achieved without ensuring human security.
He further stressed that meaningful political dialogue was essential. If those in power are to initiate the process, the PTI must also demonstrate its willingness to engage with other political forces.
Fate of PTI founder
Regarding Imran Khan’s future, Zaigham does not expect any significant change in 2026 – or even in the next four to five years – unless there is a major change, either through external pressure or a strategic decision by the PTI to operate within the existing political framework. “Even then, rapid relief seems unlikely,” he said.
Mehboob believes that the future of the PTI leader largely depends on his political choices.
“If he continues with protests and confrontation, a compromise is unlikely. However, opting for dialogue could reduce pressure on him and his party.”
He added that the next general election, expected in 2029 or slightly earlier, would be the real test of Khan’s political future. “There is little indication of a major change before then.”
Regarding the PTI’s political space, Mehboob noted that as long as the Shehbaz Sharif government and the establishment remain aligned, the government will likely continue to consolidate power.
The PTI’s confrontational strategy, he said, limits its prospects. Meanwhile, Shehbaz Sharif’s support for the hybrid model, along with his performance on foreign policy, economics, law and order and reforms, currently positions him as the strongest option.
The role of Nawaz Sharif
Although Nawaz Sharif still appears to be leading the PML-N, he has remained relatively quiet in 2025. Some observers believe that the three-time former prime minister has already played his political role and is no longer at the heart of national politics.
Zaigham disagrees, saying that Nawaz Sharif will remain politically relevant in 2026. He argued that Nawaz continues to be the central figure within the PML-N, and that key decisions in the party are made under his leadership.
Although he is not seeking public office, Zaigham said Nawaz Sharif is focused on safeguarding the party’s legacy and grooming Maryam Nawaz for leadership. The crucial question remains whether Maryam will be able to fully assume her role and regain public trust.
Mehboob thinks Nawaz Sharif is proceeding cautiously. “For now, he appears cautious, avoiding any steps that could disrupt the process or destabilize the government of his brother Shehbaz Sharif.” He added that Nawaz Sharif may re-enter active politics when he deems the time appropriate.
As Pakistan finds itself at a crossroads marked by political uncertainty and changing regional dynamics, analysts agree that the country’s future depends on the willingness of all stakeholders to engage in genuine dialogue, pursue meaningful reforms, and balance security concerns with the rights and well-being of citizens.
