Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have started 2026 strong, with analysts linking the upbeat mood to new allocations in the new year, safe-haven offerings and other factors.
Bitcoin traded near $93,700 on Tuesday, up about 1% over 24 hours and more than 7% since January 1. rose almost 2% to $3,224 and is up about 9% over the same period. dominated large caps, jumping nearly 13% in one day to $2.40 and nearly 29% for the week, while Solana increased by 12% and has gained about 23% over the past week.
Tax subsidies on sale
The rally follows dismal price action through the end of December, which saw tax-related sales and year-end book cleanings plateau upward, particularly during U.S. business hours. US-based holders reportedly liquidated their crypto holdings at a loss to offset capital gains and reduce overall tax liability. Investors typically take losses on underperforming assets to reduce the tax owed on profitable sales.
This pressure has faded, allowing a rebound, according to observers at QCP Capital, based in Singapore.
“Crypto’s alignment with broader risk assets feels less like a coincidence and more like a regime change to start the year, helped by the disappearance of year-end tax losses and the return of the political option to the radar,” the company said in a market update Monday.
The continued rise in BTC prices is consistent with the positive mood on Wall Street. On Monday, U.S. stocks rebounded as the U.S. military attack on Venezuela sent oil stocks higher and renewed AI optimism lifted technology stocks. BTC and the broader crypto market are known for closely following trends in tech stocks.
Shelter offer
The U.S. strike on Venezuela likely boosted safe-haven demand for Bitcoin and other traditional security assets such as gold.
“This spot move is likely a mix of new risk budgets being implemented, rotation of outperforming assets, and a flow into headline-grabbing hard assets from Venezuela,” Jeff Anderson, head of Asia at STS Digital, told CoinDesk.
Speculation that Venezuelan oil supplies could increase under U.S. leadership could contribute to the bullish sentiment. All things being equal, more supply could depress oil prices, generating a disinflationary impulse that would allow central banks to quickly cut rates.
“Washington’s Venezuela shock could serve as a near-term catalyst for BTC. Beyond the disinflationary boost from falling oil prices, market chatter has reignited claims that Venezuela may control a substantial ‘fictitious’ reserve of BTC, potentially comparable in size to the strategy’s holdings. These claims are unverified,” QCP Capital said.
ETF Entries and Bullish Options Positioning
U.S.-listed spot ETFs launched in 2026 with strong inflows, signaling the end of a two-month de-risking period that saw institutions withdraw billions and send BTC and the broader crypto market lower.
The 11 funds saw a combined net inflow of more than $1 billion during the first two trading days of the week, according to data source SoSoValue.
“The final trading days of 2025 and the opening sessions of 2026 brought a cautious but constructive reset for crypto markets. Bitcoin closed the year consolidating just below key resistance ($92,000), while institutional flows turned decidedly positive for the first time in weeks. Spot ETF inflows returned to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, helping to stabilize prices amid thin liquidity of vacation,” Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in an email.
These capital inflows add to the bullish momentum, although it remains to be seen whether they persist.
“Upcoming ETF flows will be key to determining whether this nascent recovery can attract new institutional capital or whether caution continues to dominate positioning,” Bitfinex analysts told CoinDesk.
Savvy traders are positioning themselves for continued price increases in the short term. Data from options exchange Deribit shows traders are buying call options at the $100,000 strike price in anticipation of a six-figure price rise.
“Call activity is picking up in both majors. The blocks show buyers through the belly: BTC January/February 98,000-100,000 calls, ETH 3,200-3,400 calls for January, plus a few March strangles,” Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC at Wintermute, said in an email. “The size is not huge, but the direction is consistent – and builds on the significant $100,000 strike interest reported last week.”
Low liquidity remains a concern
Despite constructive price action, some observers continue to point to “low liquidity” as a source of risk.
Liquidity refers to the market’s ability to absorb large buy and sell orders at stable prices. Low or limited liquidity means that a large order can have an outsized impact on the spot price, leading to erratic price movements that often carry over.
According to Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus exchange, spot market volumes remain at multi-year lows, indicating low liquidity.
“The short-term structure has shifted from weakness to strength. That said, spot volumes are at their lowest level since late 2023 and order books remain shallow. This makes the rally more sensitive to marginal flows and increases the risk of sharp extensions or sharp pullbacks. The setup is constructive, but conviction is not yet widespread,” Subburaj said in an email.
With the return of desks, demand for ETFs has also stabilized, and traders say this type of base offering is important when spot bookmakers are restricted.
