By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin is struggling to hold up as concerns over the strength of the yen and fiscal instability have led to a divergence between crypto assets and traditional safe havens.
Bitcoin fell 0.8% in 24 hours to below $88,000, and ether lost more than 1.6% to settle at just under $2,900. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) fell 1.54%.
The yen, meanwhile, rebounded more than 1.4% against the dollar after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Japan would “take all necessary measures to deal with speculative and highly abnormal movements.”
Although Takaichi did not identify the market moves of concern, yields on the country’s 10-year bonds rose to a 27-year high this month before seeing a slight decline.
Traders are also interpreting a recent “rate check” by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York as a possible sign of coordinated action with Japan, a scenario that pushes investors out of riskier assets as the yen carry trade unwinds.
Michael Burry, the investor who took advantage of the subprime mortgage crisis by shorting the market, that is, betting on a decline, recently pointed out that Japanese bond yields were closing the gap with global rates, commenting “the repatriation is underway.”
The assumption is that nearly $5 trillion in overseas investments, mostly in the United States, would be withdrawn to take advantage of these returns. As a result, capital has fled risky assets in anticipation of such a move. The Nikkei 225 index fell 1.8%, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell.
However, this capital was not converted into bitcoin, but rather into gold. The precious metal surpassed $5,000 an ounce for the first time earlier today and is already at $5,090. Bitcoin’s permanent nature, high liquidity and instant settlement could hold it back, according to Greg Cipolaro, global head of research at NYDIG.
“In times of stress and uncertainty, the preference for liquidity dominates, and this dynamic hurts bitcoin far more than gold,” he wrote in a note shared with CoinDesk.
Blockchain data also suggests internal weakness. CryptoQuant said in a report that older Bitcoin holders are starting to sell at a loss for the first time since October 2023.
Traders will be watching this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, although guidance from Chairman Jerome Powell will be key.
Additionally, U.S. government shutdown risks, currently rated at 79% on Polymarket and nearly 78% on Kalshi, add another layer of uncertainty heading into a week that sees major tech companies release earnings and stock forecasts. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- January 26, 8:30 a.m.: durable goods orders in the United States in November (previous -2.2%)
- January 26, 10:30 a.m.: US manufacturing index from the Dallas Fed for January (previous -10.9)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- Maple Finance is voting on extending the 25% allocation of protocol revenue to the Syrup Strategic Fund for the first half of 2026. Voting closes on January 26.
- Lido votes to implement a dynamic DVT incentive model that adjusts reward distribution based on operating costs, while reforming the reward sharing committee to support Lido V3 features such as stVaults. Voting closes on January 26.
- Unlocks
- January 26: to unlock 10.5% of its circulating supply worth $508.2 million.
- Token Launches
- January 26: Rainbow (RBNW) drop snapshot to take.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 1.5% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $87,928.03 (24 hours: -0.67%)
- ETH is down 1.5% at $2,897.28 (24 hours: -1.31%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 2.05% at 2,681.29 (24 hours: -1.34%%)
- Ether CESR composite staking rate is down 2 basis points to 3.05%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0051% (5.5856% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is down 0.92% at 97.46
- Gold futures are up 1.42% at $4,983.10
- Silver futures are up 7.15% at $103.26
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.79% at 52,885.25
- Hang Seng closed unchanged at 26,765.52
- FTSE is unchanged at 10,143.44
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.13% at 5,948.20
- DJIA closed Friday down 0.58% at 49,098.71
- The S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,915.61
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.28% at 23,501.24
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.43% at 33,144.98
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.5% at 3,591.57
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down 2.8 basis points at 4.211%.
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.16% at 6,933.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures unchanged at 25,680.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 0.76% at 49,180.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.79% (-0.13%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03294 (1.31%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 951 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $39.17
- Total fees: 1.93 BTC / $169,938
- CME Futures Open Interest: 124,740 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 17.2 ounces.
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 5.87%
Technical analysis
- BTC faces strong resistance after a weekly close below $88,000 and a rejection at the 50-week exponential moving average of $96,700.
- Unless it reclaims $88,000, the market will likely move into a consolidation range between $80,000 and $88,000 due to short-term price volatility in this local uncertainty before a broader breakout attempt.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Friday at $216.95 (-2.77%), -2.25% at $212.06 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $71.33 (-0.03%), -2.29% at $69.70
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.90 (+3.17%), -2.51% at $31.10
- Bull (BLSH): closed at $35.75 (-2.00%), -0.73% at $35.49
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $10.50 (+2.04%), -2.10% at $10.28
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $17.28 (+1.17%), -1.79% at $16.97
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18.79 (+3.93%), -1.33% at $18.54
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $13.71 (+3.94%), -2.26% at $13.40
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $49.14 (+4.71%), -1.59% at $48.36
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.99 (-4.83%)
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $163.11 (+1.32%), -2.33% at $159.31
- Strive (ASST): closed at $0.87 (+0.06%), -1.78% at $0.85
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.75 (-0.31%), -2.56% at $9.50
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.00 (+1.01%), -4.50% at $1.91
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.27 (-3.79%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: -$103.5 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.48 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$41.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.33 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.02 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
As Europe’s dependence on U.S. natural gas grows, so does Trump’s influence (The New York Times): Tensions over Greenland have raised fears that the Trump administration is turning the U.S. oil and gas industry into a means of pressuring Europe.
Dollar Hits Four-Month Low as Gold Tops $5,000 (Bloomberg): The dollar extended its selloff Monday as speculation swirled that the United States might coordinate intervention with Japanese authorities to support the yen. Stocks fell, while gold rose above $5,000 an ounce.
India to cut tariffs on cars to 40% as part of trade deal with EU, sources say (Reuters): India is considering cutting tariffs on cars imported from the European Union from 110% to 40%, in the country’s biggest-ever market opening as the two sides inch closer to a free trade deal that could happen as soon as Tuesday.
