Decentralized betting platform Polymarket listed Volmex’s bitcoin-linked contracts and ether volatility indices, opening the door for anyone to bet on market fluctuations this year.
The two contracts: “What will be the impact of the Bitcoin Volatility Index in 2026? » and “What will the Ethereum volatility index be in 2026?” » was posted Monday at 4:13 p.m. ET.
These contracts pay “Yes” if a one-minute “candle” for Volmex’s 30-day implied volatility indices linked to bitcoin and ether reaches or exceeds the predefined target before December 31 at 11:59 p.m. Otherwise, contracts rule “No”. A 1-minute candle is a price chart showing an asset’s price action, open, high, low and close, over just 60 seconds. It imitates the shape of a candle with its “body” and “wicks”.
So if you buy “Yes” stocks, you are essentially bullish on volatility, which essentially means you expect a more turbulent market. On the other hand, buying “no” stocks means you anticipate stability. In both cases, you are betting on the magnitude of price movements, not their direction.
Polymarket’s new contracts make volatility trading accessible to everyone, providing a simple and straightforward way to play a game historically dominated by institutions and large traders with ample capital. Traditionally, these large players have used complex multi-step options strategies or volatility futures to profit from expected changes in volatility.
“Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction marketplace, launching contracts on Volmex’s BVIV and EVIV indices is a major milestone for Volmex and crypto derivatives in general,” Cole Kennelly, founder and CEO of Volmex Labs, told CoinDesk in a Telegram conversation.
“This partnership integrates institutional-grade BTC and ETH volatility benchmarks into a simple and intuitive prediction market format, making it easier for traders and investors to express their views on the implied volatility of cryptocurrencies,” Kennelly added.
Early trading on these contracts showed that there was a 35% chance that Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) would double to 80% from its current level of 40% this year. The ether market showed an almost similar price for volatility, rising from the current 50% to 90%.
It is worth noting that the correlation between bitcoin’s implied volatility and the spot price has become largely negative since the launch of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States two years ago. This means that any increase in volatility is more likely to be accompanied by a fall in spot prices than a recovery.
