By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Crypto market looks even more slippery after Bitcoin fell 7% last week, its biggest loss in two months. Still, hope shines in bullish bets on derivatives, now at bargain prices.
The decline pushed prices below the steady upward trajectory, a “bullish trendline” as technical analysts call it, which maintained the stair-step rise from $20,000 in early 2023 to a record high of $126,000 last October.
This trend reinforces concerns about bitcoin’s sharp decline from its all-time high: we have slipped into a bear market (see TA section). So far the tracking slide has been tame. Bitcoin prices have rebounded to near $88,000 from the weekend low of around $86,000.
Nonetheless, the overall picture appears bleak, with weakening institutional appetite for the cryptocurrency accompanying the bearish message from the charts. U.S.-listed cash ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.33 billion last week, the largest in 11 months, according to SoSoValue data. As of Monday, they only raised $6.84 million.
“Sometimes it seems that speculators’ capital and attention is now focused exclusively on precious metals (mainly gold and silver), and there is simply no more strength in crypto,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at The FXPro, in an email.
Some observers believe silver will return once the gold and silver rallies subside. If you share a similar bullish view, BTC call options – derivative contracts offering big upside potential for a low upfront cost – offer the best way to bet on it.
According to Matthew Siegel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, these calls look cheap because everyone is rushing into puts, which provide downside protection.
“Downside protection is officially a busy market. While everyone pays a premium for puts, upside exposure [calls] trades at a low price. If you have a thesis to bounce, the flight surface gives you a discount,” Siegel said.
Separately, BlackRock’s chief investment officer for global fixed income, Rick Rieder, who manages some $2.4 trillion of client money and favors lower U.S. interest rates, has become a contender for Fed chairman after Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.
In traditional markets, gold and silver traded at their all-time highs, while the dollar index held at its lowest level since September last year.
South Korea’s benchmark Kospi stock index continued to rise, taking the year-to-date gain to 20%, building on last year’s solid 75% rise. This is important because, curiously, over the years Kospi’s new highs have triggered downward swings in bitcoin. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- January 27: weekly change in ADP employment in the United States (previous 8,000)
- January 27: S&P/Case-Shiller US housing prices year-on-year for November (previous 1.3%); MoM (previous -0.3%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- January 27: Zebec Network, Dash, Houdini Swap and Cryptic will participate in an X Spaces session on the importance of privacy.
- January 27: Brave’s Brendan Eich, Cardano’s Charles Hoskinson, and Mythigal Games’ John Linden will participate in an X Spaces session.
- January 27: PancakeSwap will host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session with Venus Protocol.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- January 27: Theo Network is expected to make an announcement, possibly related to the launch of thGOLD.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.38% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $88,326.08 (24 hours: -0.18%)
- ETH is up 0.1% at $2,929.56 (24 hours: +0.22%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.58% at 2,683.47 (24 hours: +0.32%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 4 Basis Points to 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0074% (8.068% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is unchanged at 97.01
- Gold futures unchanged at $5,082.10
- Silver futures are down 2.82% at $112.25
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.85% at 53,333.54
- Hang Seng closed up 1.35% at 27,126.95
- The FTSE is up 0.4% at 10,189.88
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.22% at 5,970.72
- DJIA closed Monday up 0.64% at 49,412.40
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.50% at 6,950.23
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.43% at 23,601.36
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 0.16% at 33,093.32
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.36% at 3,604.49
- The 10-year US Treasury yield is up 1bp to 4.221%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.25% at 6,999.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.56% at 25,994.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures unchanged at 49,518.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.67% (-0.07%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03307 (-0.28%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 921 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $39.22
- Total fees: 2.38 BTC / $208,632
- CME Futures Open Interest: 120,620 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 17.2 ounces.
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 5.87%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows the price development of Bitcoin from 2023.
- Prices fell more than 7% last week, with the big red candle piercing the trendline that represents the staircase rally starting in 2023.
- This so-called breakup confirms bear market concerns.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Monday at $213.48 (-1.60%), +0.76% to $215.10 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $70.90 (-0.60%), +0.56% at $71.30
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.28 (-1.94%), +0.38% to $31.40
- Bull (BLSH): closed at $35.66 (-0.25%), +1.04% at $36.03
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.98 (-4.95%), +0.70% at $10.05
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $16.23 (-6.08%), +1.42% to $16.46
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $19.05 (+1.38%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $12.44 (-9.26%), +0.88% at $12.55
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $46.58 (-5.21%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.72 (-1.80%)
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $160.58 (-1.55%), +0.46% at $161.32
- Strive (ASST): closed at $0.79 (-9.76%), +2.56% at $0.81
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.38 (-3.79%), unchanged in pre-market
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.89 (-5.50%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.29 (+1.57%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flow: $6.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.48 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $117 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.45 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.02 million
Source: Farside Investors
