The race is on among analysts to predict how far bitcoin will go could fall, with target prices falling further every day. The latest to launch is Stifel, a leading full-service financial services company headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
Analysts at the 136-year-old company predict that the price of bitcoin could fall as low as $38,000.
“Already down -41% from the high, Bitcoin superbears have been following a linear trend suggesting a potential low around $38,000,” the team led by Barry B. Bannister said in a note to clients on Wednesday.
They look at the straight line drawn between the low points of every major Bitcoin crash since 2010. Bitcoin fell 93% in 2011, 84% in 2015, 83% in 2018, and 76% in 2022. A line connecting these market lows rises and points to $38,000 as the potential nadir for the current decline.
Bitcoin peaked at over $126,000 in October and has since crashed to nearly $70,000, returning to levels last seen in November 2024.
The case of Benjamin Bitcoin trinkets
Stifel analysts explained the bearish case with an analogy related to the movie “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.”
In the film and in the F. Scott Fiztgerald story on which it is based, Button gets younger as everyone else gets older. Bitcoin is like this: a fixed supply cap of 21 million BTC made it stronger – younger in analysts’ terms – while the dollar weakened due to regular money printing.
Now it’s unraveling, like the kid version of Button, who looks 10 but is 80, stuck playing piano for pensioners.
Previously, Bitcoin rose with more global liquidity and weaker dollars, but since 2025 the relationship has reversed. It is now falling with the dollar. The dollar index has fallen nearly 1% this year, extending last year’s nearly 10% decline.
“Before 2025, Bitcoin rose when the dollar fell and global money supply M2 (converted to dollars) increased, thus aging relative to fiat, but since 2025 the relationship has reversed,” the analysts said.
This behavior is compounded by the fact that Bitcoin closely tracks the Nasdaq 100 index and Wall Street’s tech-heavy growth stocks, rising sharply following dovish pivots from the Federal Reserve and collapsing in the face of hawkish pivots. Although the Fed cut interest rates at the final three meetings of 2025, they largely took a hawkish tone, downplaying faster cuts in the future.
This tone is worrying, analysts say, especially as technology companies borrow more, which has increased their borrowing costs. This could lead to a financial squeeze, affecting stock valuations and worsening the bitcoin market’s woes.
