Traders on prediction market Polymarket have doubled the implied odds that the second coming of Jesus Christ will occur by the end of the year, turning one of the platform’s strangest contracts into a better performer than bitcoin.
The market, titled “Will Jesus Return in 2026,” was trading around 4 cents on Friday, implying a probability of about 4 percent. That’s up from the January 3 low of around 1.8%, meaning the “Yes” camp has gained more than 120% in just over a month.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is moving in the opposite direction. The largest cryptocurrency has lost 18% this year for reasons ranging from fears that quantum computing could break its encryption to speculation about a boom in hedge funds and a broader push for risk aversion in global markets.
Such price action has left even meme-style prediction contracts looking resilient in comparison.
Polymarkets work like binary options. A “Yes” action pays $1 if the event occurs and $0 otherwise, with the trading price reflecting the crowd’s implied probability.
A trader who buys “Yes” at 4 cents is actually paying that amount for a chance at $1. Someone who buys “No” at 96 cents is betting that the event will not happen and will win 4 cents if the contract responds to “No.”
If “No” trades for extended periods in the mid to high 90s, it creates the appearance of a slow and steady gain for anyone willing to put money into it, even if the trade is ultimately binary and can still fluctuate wildly.
The contract answers “Yes” if the Second Coming occurs before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET, and “No” otherwise. Polymarket says the resolution will be based on a consensus of credible sources, a clause that shows why traders treat the market more like a novelty than a serious forecast.
Price action offers insight into how prediction markets may behave like microcap tokens. With relatively limited liquidity, even small buying waves can cause the odds to rise dramatically, creating headline-grabbing percentage gains.
The rally also reflects Polymarket’s growing role as a real-time barometer of attention on the Internet, where everything from elections to celebrity gossip to religious prophecies can be exchanged in the same interface.
As such, the “Jesus business” remains a bit of a sideshow. But in a year where Bitcoin has struggled to find a stable footing, it’s also a reminder that crypto’s weirdest corners are sometimes the only ones rising.
