The crypto market downturn has been particularly hard on major US exchange Coinbase (COIN), which has seen its stock plunge more than 50% since bitcoin’s record high above $126,000 in early October, including a 27% decline in 2026 alone.
Attempting to make up for this rapid fall, JPMorgan’s Ken Worthington cut his price target on COIN from $399 to $290 ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report, after Thursday’s close.
Worthington remains bullish on the stock and his reduced target still suggests a 75% upside from COIN’s current price of $1,655.
Worthington Projects adjusted EBITDA of $734 million, down from $801 million in the third quarter. This would mark a sharp decline from previous quarters, primarily driven by lower trading volumes, weak cryptocurrency prices and slower growth in USDC stablecoin balances, he said.
Worthington estimates crypto spot trading volume at $263 billion for the quarter. He also highlighted the decline in USDC circulation, modeling stablecoin-related revenues of $312 million. These headwinds were partially offset by a full quarter of contributions from Deribit, the crypto derivatives exchange acquired by Coinbase in August.
Including Deribit, JPMorgan models total revenue of $1.06 billion, with Deribit contributing approximately $117 million of an estimated $586 billion in trading volume. In the previous quarter, the exchange reported $1 billion in trading revenue.
On the subscription and services side, the bank expects revenue of $670 million, below Coinbase’s previous range of $710 million to $790 million, reflecting falling crypto prices, lower staking yields and slowing USDC growth. Worthington also expects operating expenses to be lower than expected as the company controls costs.
Other sellers weigh in
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish said his estimates were about 10% below consensus adjusted EBITDA, due to weak retail revenue and blockchain rewards. “We are significantly lower in retail revenue, based on Robinhood readings, and blockchain rewards revenue,” Budish wrote, adding that consensus estimates may not yet fully reflect publicly available volume data.
Barclays estimates Coinbase trading volume at approximately $261 billion during the quarter. He said retail crypto volumes reported by Robinhood (HOOD), which have historically closely tracked those of Coinbase, fell about 15% quarter over quarter.
Compass Point took a more bearish tone. Analyst Ed Engel was negative on the stock in terms of earnings, expecting disappointment in the subscription and services segment. “As investors place a premium multiple on COIN’s S&S segment, we expect Q4 results to confirm that overall revenue remains tied to overall crypto prices,” Engel wrote. He also expects January trading revenue to reflect what he described as Coinbase’s lowest retail engagement since the third quarter of 2024.
Beyond the big numbers, investors will likely focus on commentary on trading activity in early 2026, the sustainability of USDC-related revenue, and whether new initiatives, such as Deribit and Coinbase’s futures business, can meaningfully offset fluctuations in crypto spot markets.
