Investment bank Standard Chartered has lowered its near-term and full-year price forecasts for major cryptocurrencies, citing continued downside risk due to outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a challenging macroeconomic backdrop that is pressuring the market.
The bank is now waiting for Bitcoin fall to around $50,000 in the coming months, with ether potentially a floor near $1,400.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $67,900 at press time. Ether, the second largest, was trading around $1,980.
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said the sell-off in recent weeks could extend as ETF investors, many of whom are sitting on losses, are more likely to reduce their exposure rather than “buy the dip.”
Once prices bottom, Kendrick said, he expects a recovery through the end of 2026. The analyst cut his year-end target for bitcoin from $150,000 to $100,000, for ether to $4,000 from $7,500, for Solana. at $135 from $250, BNB channel at $1,050 from $1,755 and at $18 from $100.
The crypto market weakened sharply in early 2026, with major assets like Bitcoin sliding significantly from late 2025 highs and the total market capitalization declining sharply in recent weeks. Bitcoin has fallen almost 23% since the start of the year.
The downturn has been marked by increased volatility, large liquidations of leveraged positions, and a general sense of risk aversion, which has seen crypto become more closely correlated with weakening stock markets.
Macroeconomic pressures such as concerns over global growth and the outlook for interest rates have pushed investors toward traditional safe havens like gold, while a lack of regulatory clarity, particularly in the United States, and liquidity strains at some institutions have weighed on sentiment. Together, these forces have resulted in reduced trading revenues for companies with exposure to cryptocurrencies and bearish sentiment on many tokens.
Bitcoin ETF holdings are down nearly 100,000 BTC from their October 2025 peak, according to Kendrick. The average purchase price for an ETF is around $90,000, leaving many investors with unrealized losses of around 25%.
Macroeconomic conditions are also weighing on sentiment. Kendrick noted that while U.S. economic data shows signs of slowing, markets don’t expect any interest rate cuts until after Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as Federal Reserve chairman in mid-June, which would limit near-term support for risky assets.
Despite the expected capitulation, the bank said the current drawdown is less severe than previous cycles. At its worst point in early February, bitcoin was down about 50% from its October 2025 all-time high, and about half of the supply remained in profit, declines that are sharp but not as extreme as in previous downturns.
Importantly, this cycle has not seen the collapse of major crypto platforms, unlike the failures of Terra/Luna and FTX in 2022. Kendrick said this suggests the asset class is maturing and more resilient.
The analyst left his long-term projections unchanged, maintaining end-2030 targets of $500,000 for bitcoin and $40,000 for ether, arguing that usage trends and structural factors remain intact.
The analyst previously reduced his bullish forecast on Bitcoin in December.
Learn more: Standard Chartered throws in the towel on bullish Bitcoin forecasts
