Crypto Daybook Americas will not be released on Monday, February 16 due to Presidents Day in the United States. We will be back on February 17th.
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin is on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline, its longest negative streak since mid-November. The largest cryptocurrency has lost 1.7% in the last 24 hours and 4.8% since Monday morning.
The broader CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) fell 2% in a market that Bitwise research analyst Danny Nelson says is primarily driven by fear. Indeed, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has now been in “extreme fear” territory for almost two weeks.
“The main driver of the market right now is fear. Fear of a decline,” Nelson told CoinDesk. “In a market like this, good news doesn’t register with investors. If they see an exit ramp, they take it.”
To illustrate his point, Nelson highlighted the reaction to Uniswap’s decision 25% surge after the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock (BLK) announced it was making shares of its $2.2 billion tokenized U.S. Treasury fund BUIDL tradable on the decentralized exchange. The token has now returned the gains made after this announcement.
“Sellers who were bearish on the short-term direction of the market dominated bulls who were betting that institutional adoption would generate long-term value,” he said.
Earlier this week, better U.S. jobs data and a lower unemployment rate prompted traders to rethink their rate cut expectations for the year. Further guidance could come later today in the form of inflation figures for the world’s largest economy.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January is expected to show inflation of 2.5% year-on-year.
Added to this uncertainty is concern over a partial shutdown of the American government. The chances of this happening tomorrow are now around 90% on the Kalshi prediction market. If this comes to fruition, expect even more volatility amid tight trading. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- February 13, 8:30 a.m.: core inflation rate in the United States year-on-year for January (previously 2.6%); MoM Est. 0.3% (previous 0.2%)
- February 13, 8:30 a.m.: US year-on-year inflation rate for January (previous 2.7%); MoM Est. 0.3% (previous 0.3%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- February 13: Trump Media & Tech Group (DJT), post-market
- February 13: HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE), post-market, -$0.07
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- Unlocks
- February 15: Connex to unlock 1.56% of its circulating supply worth $15 million.
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 1.75% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $66,933.65 (24 hours: -0.83%)
- ETH is up 2.05% at $1,961.15 (24 hours: -0.97%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 1.48% at 1,913.46 (24h: -1.96%)
- Ether CESR composite staking rate is down 15 basis points to 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0019% (2.0947% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is up 0.13% at 97.05
- Gold futures are up 1.41% at $4,993.10
- Silver futures are up 3.65% at $78.30
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.21% at 56,941.97
- Hang Seng closed 1.72% lower at 26,567.12
- The FTSE 100 is up 0.12% at 10,414.44
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.16% at 6,001.38
- DJIA closed Thursday down 1.34% at 49,451.98
- The S&P 500 closed down 1.57% at 6,832.76
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.03% at 22,597.15
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 2.37% at 32,465.30
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.71% at 3,741.30
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down 7 basis points at 4.10%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.27% at 6,832.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.29% at 24,696.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 0.33% at 49,358.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.01% (+0.41%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02923 (-0.55%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,027 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $33.55
- Total fees: 2.55 BTC / $170,716
- Open Interest on CME Futures: 116,875 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 13.5 oz.
- Market capitalization BTC vs gold: 4.48%
Technical analysis
- Bitcoin remains under pressure below the 200-week exponential moving average of $68,324.
- A confirmed weekly close below this level historically signals an additional 20-25% capitulation.
- This would take it towards the $51,000-$54,000 range before a bottom forms
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Thursday at $141.09 (-7.90%), +5.87% to $149.37 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $56.63 (-2.13%), +1.71% to $57.60
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.15 (-1.23%)
- Bull (BLSH): closed at $31.71 (-0.53%), +0.28% at $31.80
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $7.25 (-4.10%), +1.10% to $7.33
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $14.20 (-4.05%), +0.85% to $14.32
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.48 (-3.37%), +0.11% to $17.50
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.31 (-3.22%), +1.18% to $9.42
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $40.10 (-3.70%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.19 (+1.09%)
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $123.00 (-2.44%), +1.54% to $124.89
- Strive (ASST): closed at $7.70 (-4.82%), +0.52% to $7.74
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.54 (-1.21%), +1.07% to $6.61
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.74 (-8.82%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.03 (-3.74%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: -$410.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.3 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$113.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.67 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.8 million
Source: Farside Investors
