- President Trump Announced Reversal of “Danger Finding”
- This judgment concluded that greenhouse gases endanger public health
- Trump promises cheaper cars, but it could raise the cost of living
President Trump has reversed a historic ruling that greenhouse gases endanger public health, in an effort to lower car prices and ease the burden of energy costs on American households.
According to the New York Times, for more than 17 years, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has relied on scientific findings to justify regulations limiting carbon dioxide, methane and other pollution from oil and gas wells, tailpipes, smokestacks and other sources burning fossil fuels.
Dubbed the “hazard statement,” it was designed to reduce the effects of climate change and protect the health of U.S. citizens and, arguably, the world’s population.
But that’s not the view of President Trump’s current EPA administrator, Lee Zeldin. According to The Guardian, an emailed statement from a spokesperson said discovery of the threat had been used to “justify billions of dollars in greenhouse gas regulations covering new vehicles and engines.”
The policy’s potential return is expected to cause the country’s greenhouse gas emissions to increase by 10 percent over the next 30 years, according to the Environmental Defense Fund, an advocacy group. “We predict 58,000 premature deaths by 2055,” Peter Zalzal, attorney for the Environmental Defense Fund, told CNBC.
In addition to the potential effects on health and the global climate, the automotive industry is expected to face a long period of uncertainty. This comes on top of the previous elimination of federal tax credits for electric vehicles, which led to a dramatic drop in sales, as well as numerous tariffs imposed by President Trump, making it almost financially impossible for some global automakers to export to North America.
However, the Trump administration claimed that ignoring the “danger findings” would save automakers and other companies about $1 trillion, although it declined to explain how it arrived at that estimate, according to CNBC.
Fuel prices rise, innovation stagnates
So what could the impacts be? First, removing emissions regulations could cause U.S. automakers to reduce their spending on innovation and shift to less polluting and less efficient vehicles. According to some industry players, this would cause Americans to spend more money on fuel for their daily commute.
This increase in demand would then drive up the cost of fuel, which could increase profits for major oil companies by as much as $1.4 trillion, according to Electrek.
At the same time, reduced incentives for innovation could cause the U.S. auto industry to fall further behind in the race to develop more efficient and environmentally friendly vehicles. This could greatly benefit China, which is already ahead in the development of next-generation batteries and hybrid technologies.
Although they financially support the current administration, Elon Musk and his company Tesla have been vocal about this danger finding, saying it — and the resulting vehicle emissions standards — have provided a “stable regulatory platform for Tesla’s considerable investments in product development and production,” according to CNBC.
Currently, the company’s sales are stagnant around the world, and many say its lack of innovation has caused it to fall behind its competitors.
Electric vehicle adoption is actually increasing
On the other hand, this historic policy reversal could actually increase demand for purely electric, hybrid, and generally more efficient vehicles as U.S. citizens turn to models that could help reduce everyday travel costs.
Additionally, states could step up and enact their own legislation that would reverse President Trump’s decision. California is a proponent of cleaner EV technology and an overall reduction in greenhouse gas emissions on a more local level.
Due to the extremely sensitive nature of the automotive industry, most automakers build vehicles to the strictest emissions standards, rather than risk making a production line too complicated and expensive.
This could mean that U.S.-based manufacturers would produce cars based on the strictest standards of the strictest states.
Finally, automakers are operating on extremely long product development timelines, which means this move isn’t going to immediately stop everything that’s in the works. Electric and hybrid vehicles that are expected to hit the market in two or three years probably still will.
“Even despite that, almost this sort of war on electric vehicles — getting rid of subsidies, getting rid of regulation — I think it’s been pushed to a point where you’re not going to see us move totally toward electric vehicles,” Alan Jenn, a professor at the University of California, Davis’s Electric Vehicle Research Center, told CNBC.
Regardless, the Trump administration’s recent move will likely be met with frustration by an industry currently going through arguably its most significant transition in 100 years.
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