Cryptocurrency prices firmed during Friday morning trading in Asia, with bitcoin climbing as high as $68,000 after a turbulent week that tested the nerves of risk-off markets.
The rebound was broad. XRP, the SOL of Solana, and Cardano’s ADA rose as much as 2%, while ether lagged slightly lower, hovering below $2,000, with traders treating the level as a line that should be defended rather than celebrated.
The move had the feel of a rally of relief more than a sharp turnaround. After weeks of wild swings, the market began to react in waves. A quick push higher attracts dip buyers, then selling appears as soon as the price reaches a level where trapped holders can exit with fewer losses.
The difference this week is that each bounce has seemed a little less fragile, suggesting that forced selling is easing even if conviction buying has not regained momentum.
Macro and geopolitics help keep traders cautious. Gold stabilized near $5,000 an ounce after two sessions of gains as investors priced in rising risk in the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday he would allow 10 to 15 days for negotiations on a nuclear deal with Iran while US forces build up in the region. This combination supported demand for safe havens and made it more difficult to build momentum for risky assets.
Wenny Cai, COO at SynFutures, said traders were recalibrating after the Federal Reserve’s latest minutes were more hawkish, even though rate hikes are not the main expectation.
“Markets are digesting a more hawkish reading of the Federal Reserve’s final minutes,” Cai said. “The key change is not that hikes suddenly become the base case, but that policymakers explicitly put them back on the table if inflation does not continue to cool, effectively making short-term easing more difficult.”
“This revaluation has supported the dollar and tightened financial conditions at the margin, and this is reflected in risk. Equities have weakened and supply has returned to cash-type instruments and short-duration Treasury bills,” she added.
FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich remained bearish in his view of the broader context. He said that given previous market momentum and the more cautious tone in U.S. stocks, the chances of a retest of local lows are increasing, pointing toward levels last seen in the second half of 2024.
On ether, he said the token was on a long support line that dates back to 2020 and aligns with the $2,000 area, but added that a true breakdown would require confirmation by a fall below recent lows around $1,500.
Beneath the surface, some indicators suggest that large holders may be positioning themselves to sell hard. CryptoQuant says bitcoin flows from large holders to Binance have reached record levels, a trend that may precede a larger spot supply.
The K33 Research Workshop compared current conditions to the final stages of the 2022 bear market which gave way to a long, hard consolidation.
The result is a market that can rebound, but struggles to turn rebounds into trends until spot demand becomes stronger than sellers waiting for the next round.
