The widely followed Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index briefly appeared to recover after the February 5 crash. This was not the case.
The premium has now been negative for 40 consecutive days, according to Coinglass data, establishing the longest streak of sub-zero values since 2023. The current value sits at -0.0467%, barely changed from two weeks ago, when a sharp decline of -0.22% suggested US buyers had moved closer to the lows.
The index measures the price difference between bitcoin on Coinbase and the global market average. Coinbase is widely used as an indicator of US and dollar-denominated institutional flows, so a persistent negative reading means US investors are consistently paying less than the rest of the world – either by selling more aggressively or simply not showing up.
The previous record was about 30 days of continuous negative premium during the October 2025 drawdown. That streak was broken when a sharp rebound brought U.S. buyers back into the market. This time, the rebound happened, with bitcoin recovering as much as 15% from its February 5 intraday low. But the bonus never followed.
This divergence shows that although prices have recovered, the composition of demand has not. Whatever purchase sent Bitcoin back above $62,000 came from outside of U.S. business hours, outside of Coinbase’s order books, or both.
The only positive reading is that the premium has been progressively less negative since the beginning of February, going from -0.22% to -0.05%. The situation is improving, but not fast enough to become positive, a threshold which historically coincides with phases of sustained accumulation rather than periods of relief.
Interestingly, Google searches for “bitcoin zero” in the United States reached record levels earlier this month, as CoinDesk reported, even as global interest in the term remained stable.
Both signals indicate that U.S. investors specifically are losing conviction at a rate that has never happened elsewhere.
