By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Uh-oh, bitcoin The price trend that presaged the final and deepest phases of previous bear markets has re-emerged.
In mid-November 2018, CoinDesk reported a bearish reversal in long-term averages on a chart of three days of price action in each candle. He warned that a similar event in 2014 deepened the bear market, and within a week bitcoin crashed to below $4,500 from $6,000, extending the decline from the peak of around $20,000.
Cut to April 2022. The same pattern happened, with the same result. The BTC bear market deepened and prices surged from $32,000 to $17,500, having already fallen from the late 2021 high of nearly $70,000.
Now the pattern is back (see Technical Analysis section). Although past performance is no guarantee of future results, history suggests caution. Some savvy traders are bracing for a deeper crash below $60,000.
Bitcoin recently traded near $66,100, down 3% in 24 hours. Other major tokens and the CoinDesk 20 Index lost even more. Yet U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have brought in more than $1 billion in three days.
“This magnitude of demand speaks to absorption rather than speculation,” Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo Dispatch, said in an email. “On-chain data reinforces this shift: wallets holding more than 10,000 Bitcoins piled up during the recent pullback from the $70,000 region, suggesting long-term holders are stepping in as supply dwindles.”
Still, ETF flows must persist to drive BTC sustainably higher, Kalchev said.
In traditional markets, oil prices remain supported by US-Iran uncertainty and the possibility of an escalation over the weekend. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- February 27, 8:30 a.m.: MoM American PPI for January est. 0.3% (previous 0.5%); Core PPI MoM is. 0.3% (previous 0.7%)
- February 27, 8:30 a.m.: US one-year PPI for January est. 2.9% (previous 3%)
- February 27, 8:30 a.m.: Annualized growth rate of Canada’s GDP for the fourth quarter (previously 2.6%); QoQ (previous 0.6%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- 1inch DAO votes to allocate 2,000,000 USDC of its treasury to the Aave V3 marketplace on Ethereum to generate yield. Voting closes March 1.
- Unlocks
- February 28: Grass (GRASS) will unlock 13.15% of its circulating supply worth $10.09 million.
- February 28: Jupiter (JUP) will unlock 7.94% of its circulating supply worth $39.34 million.
- March 1: to unlock 1.13% of its circulating supply worth $40.97 million.
- Token Launches
- February 27: Fabric Protocol (ROBO) will be listed on Binance, Bybit, Bitget, KuCoin and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is unchanged from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $67,423.09 (24 hours: -0.95%)
- ETH is down 0.89% at $2,012.51 (24 hours: -2%)
- CoinDesk 20 is unchanged at 1,968.26 (24 hours: -2.49%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 4 Basis Points to 2.89%
- BTC funding rate is -0.006% (-6.5799% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is unchanged at 97.74
- Gold futures unchanged at $5,191.50
- Silver futures are up 2.82% at $90.05
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.16% at 58,850.27
- Hang Seng closed 0.95% higher at 26,630.54
- The FTSE is up 0.39% at 10,888.78
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 6,161.33
- DJIA closed Thursday up 0.03% at 49,499.20
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.54% at 6,908.86
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.18% at 22,878.38
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 1.1% at 34,501.96
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.4% at 3,772.90
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down 3 basis points at 3.987%.
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.28% at 6,900.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.19% at 25,033.75
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 0.48% at 49,294.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.49% (-0.11%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02973 (-1.06%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,055 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $29.31
- Total fees: 3.43 BTC / $232,808
- Open Interest on CME Futures: 107,780 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 12.8 ounces.
- Market capitalization BTC vs gold: 4.46%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows the price movements of BTC over a three-day period in candlestick form from 2024 to 2025 and from 2018 to 2022. Each candle brings together the price movement observed over three days, or 72 hours.
- On this chart, the 50 and 200 candle moving averages have turned bearish.
- Similar trends led to deeper declines in 2014, 2018 and 2022.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Thursday at $181.06 (-1.57%), unchanged in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closes at $87.21 (+4.90%), unchanged pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.94 (-3.90%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $32.73 (-0.49%), unchanged in pre-market
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.45 (-1.40%), +15.98% to $9.80
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $17.09 (+0.06%), +0.12% to $17.11
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.98 (-0.55%), -1.50% at $17.71
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.44 (-0.10%), -0.77% at $10.36
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $42.17 (-0.40%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.45 (-1.69%)
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $133.40 (-1.66%), +0.62% to $134.23
- Strive (ASST): closed at $8.19 (-4.10%), +0.24% to $8.21
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $7.21 (-3.09%), +0.55% to $7.25
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.76 (-7.87%), +0.22% at $0.76
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.14 (-3.39%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: $254.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.81 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $6.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.68 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.72 million
Source: Farside Investors
