Bitcoin’s rebound toward $70,000 – trading at $68,000 as Hong Kong hit midday – appears to have been driven more by positioning than conviction, according to market maker Enflux, which said the move largely reflected short covering after traders turned bearish amid geopolitical headlines.
“The market is not a pricing disaster, but it is not a pricing resolution either,” Enflux wrote in a note to CoinDesk. “Short selling dominated Iranian headlines this weekend, BTC soared towards 63,000, and when the escalation did not immediately escalate into a broader regional war affecting the Gulf and Dubai trade corridors, the squeeze began.”
Crypto tends to react more quickly than traditional assets during geopolitical shocks, Enflux added.
“When bombs fall or sanctions tighten, capital looks for exit routes. In times of uncertainty, BTC becomes a pressure valve,” the company wrote.
Institutional demand remained a key source of support. Over the past five trading days, BTC ETFs have attracted approximately $1.45 billion in net inflows.
Baby boomers are to the rescue again as Bitcoin ETFs see $1.5 billion in inflows over the last 5 days after another big day yesterday. Biggest gain in some time, almost all ten original spot ETFs also see action = breadth and depth. This after a 50% drawdown (!) and most of it underwater.… pic.twitter.com/eF0VJqiPZ0
– Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) March 3, 2026
Onchain and derivative indicators suggest that the market is stabilizing but has not yet regained strong conviction.
In a recent report, Glassnode wrote that momentum indicators are starting to recover from recent weakness, with Bitcoin’s relative strength index rising to around 41 from 36 the previous week, although it remains below the neutral level of 50, which would indicate stronger bullish control.
Spot market conditions have also improved. Trading volume climbed to around $9.6 billion from $6.6 billion the previous week, while buying and selling flows in spot markets became more balanced, suggesting that the previous wave of aggressive selling has begun to ease.
Derivatives markets remain cautious. Glassnode said the cost of holding long leveraged positions has fallen sharply, while futures trading still shows sellers dominating buyers, signaling continued caution from leveraged traders.
Prediction markets reflect the same cooling of conviction: The probability of bitcoin falling to $65,000 in March fell 11 percentage points to 73%, the probability of $60,000 fell 10 points to 41%, and a separate Polymarket contract showing bitcoin hitting $60,000 before $80,000 also weakened, sliding 12 points to 61%.
Together, the data suggests that Bitcoin has found support for now, but traders remain hesitant to anticipate a decisive rally or deeper sell-off.
