Punters have long been able to speculate on the possibility of a nuclear weapon being detonated on Polymarket, but the current conflict with Iran – and increased scrutiny of pro-war insider trading – has apparently caused the platform to pull contracts.
Polymarket created a market that would monetize a nuclear attack amid growing concerns about gambling among government insiders who can make military decisions. pic.twitter.com/r1CbWaLWcw
– David Sirota (@davidsirota) March 3, 2026
The markets, which asked users to assign probabilities as to whether a nuclear weapon would explode on specific dates, have been circulating on Polymarket for years and have historically responded “no.”
But the renewed focus on contracts comes as prediction markets face criticism after a trader allegedly bet more than $400,000 on the ouster of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro shortly before the U.S. operation that led to his capture, raising questions about whether insiders could exploit the platforms to trade in the event of an outbreak of war – such as the start of the current conflict with Iran – and other actions military.
Historical trading suggests that contracts sometimes price in significant risk.
A Polymarket contract in 2023 at one point implied about a 19% chance that a nuclear weapon would detonate before the end of the year, according to the platform’s data.
A subsequent market expiring in June 2025 was trading close to 12%.
The markets also attracted significant trading activity. The 2025 contract alone saw volume of over $1.7 million, while the 2023 version attracted nearly $700,000 in stakes.
All this comes as U.S. regulators consider how to oversee prediction markets.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed rules in 2024 that would prohibit the exchanges it regulates from listing event contracts related to war, terrorism, assassinations or other activities deemed contrary to the public interest.
Chairman Mike Selig said the Commission plans to issue clearer guidance on prediction markets soon.
