By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin reached just under $72,000, hitting a one-month high and lifting the broader crypto market even as the war in the Middle East wreaks havoc on traditional markets.
The outperformance stems from several factors, including relative positioning, increasing odds of the United States passing the long-debated Clarity Act to legalize stablecoins, and hopes that the conflict with Iran will end soon.
Bitcoin, down nearly 50% from its October record, was oversold before hostilities began on Saturday. So while traditional assets fell, BTC held up well. This has likely reignited investor interest in the larger cryptocurrency, driving institutions back to spot ETFs.
As noted on Monday, bitcoin stands to gain as war will only worsen public finances around the world, leading to more “fiat depreciation.”
Meanwhile, the New York Times published an interesting report that likely contributed to the price rebound: according to Bloomberg. The report said that the day after the attacks began, agents from the Iranian Intelligence Ministry contacted the CIA to discuss conditions for ending the war. Although the United States has ignored this overture, awareness suggests that the backchannels are still active and could be used again, potentially leading to a ceasefire.
Finally, it is possible that the clarity law will be adopted soon.
“There was speculation in the United States that the Clarity Act was about to be signed into law. This helped elevate many altcoins relative to major assets, as they were expected to be among the biggest long-term beneficiaries of the legislation,” Paul Howard, director of trading firm Wincent, said in an email.
However, he added that there is currently no solid evidence that a large pool of sidelined money is waiting to flood digital assets, and that any turnover is still relatively small or gradual.
Looking ahead, traders expect volatility to persist, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil supply bottleneck, remains closed and oil prices continue to rise.
“We expect continued volatility, but if disruptions persist, pressure to reopen Hormuz is likely to increase. Bitcoin has held up better than broader risk and is worth considering as an early signal of stabilizing sentiment,” QCP Capital’s market analysis team said. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- March 4, 8:15 a.m.: ADP employment change in the United States for February (previous 22,000)
- March 4, 10:00 a.m.: US ISM Services PMI for February (previous 53.8)
- March 4, 2:00 p.m.: Beige book of the American Fed
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- Uniswap DAO is voting on two related proposals to expand v2 and v3 protocol fees to eight Layer 2 networks and enable a new tier-based fee system across all v3 pools. Voting closes March 4-5.
- ENS DAO votes to replace three Oracle DNSSEC algorithms to fix a critical RSA signature forgery vulnerability and significantly reduce gas costs. Voting closes on March 4.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- March 4: Block Street (BSB) will list on Binance Alpha, Bybit and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 4.49% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $71,283.58 (24 hours: +6.65%)
- ETH is up 5.19% at $2,068.65 (24 hours: +5.64%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 4.31% to 3,086.55 (24h: +5.45%)
- Ether CESR composite staking rate down 1bp to 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0051% (5.6119% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is down 0.25% at 98.81
- Gold futures are up 1.70% at $5,194.10
- Silver futures are up 4.00% at $86.24
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 3.61% at 54,245.54
- Hang Seng closed 2.01% lower at 25,249.48
- The FTSE 100 is up 0.18% at 10,502.97
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.70% at 5,812.08
- DJIA closed Tuesday down 0.83% at 48,501.27
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.94% at 6,816.63
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.02% at 22,516.69
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 2.19% at 33,784.90
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed down 4.95% at 3,539.33
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is up 1 basis point at 4.06%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures unchanged at 6,825.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures unchanged at 24,762.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 0.12% at 48,501.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.61% (+0.81%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02909 (0.26%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,025 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $31.26
- Total fees: 2.71 BTC / $183,733
- CME Futures Open Interest: 101,620 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 13.7 ounces.
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 4.77%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows weekly Bitcoin price fluctuations in candlestick form from the beginning of 2024.
- The rebound above $71,000 renewed focus on the $74,000 level, which acted as resistance, an area that buyers used in March 2024 and later as support, where selling stagnated last April.
- This level therefore represents an area of significant historical economic activity and could now serve as a key inflection zone: a break and hold above $74,000 could open the door to a push to higher levels, while a repeated failure could reignite selling pressure.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Tuesday at $182.36 (–1.55%), +6.66% to $194.51 in pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.68 (–4.83%), +4.01% to $21.51
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.66 (–8.36%), +6.47% to $9.22
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $15.29 (–6.94%), +3.53% to $15.83
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.30 (–7.22%), +2.55% to $15.69
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.89 (–6.26%), +4.25% at $10.31
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.83 (+3.44%), +0.65% to $10.90
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.88 (–6.31%), +4.67% to $39.65
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $99.63 (+3.63%), +6.15% at $105.76
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $33.12 (–2.04%), +2.93% at $34.09
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $132.68 (–3.61%), +7.70% at $142.89
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.79 (–10.80%), +14.65% at $0.90
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.15 (+2.68%)
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.26 (–1.76%), +4.68% to $7.60
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: $225.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.47 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.28 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$10.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.66 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.71 million
Source: Farside Investors
